Alexandre Muller vs Marcos Giron
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marcos Giron
Alexandre …: 48,8% Marcos …: 51,2%
¿Por qué Marcos Giron?
UTR 15,12 vs 15,30 (-0,18) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alexandre … Marcos … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,10 1,73 47,6%
Gamdom 2,01 1,81 49,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,05 1,95 48,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Alexandre …: +3,6% Marcos …: -3,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alexandre Muller
Ranking #52
UTR Rating 15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking #76
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 11/25 = 44,0%
Marcos Giron
Ranking #51
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #54
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 12/28 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 12,0000
rank_ratio 1,2308
log_rank_ratio 0,2076
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 135,0000
best_rank_diff -1,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 1,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,9519
surface_matches_ratio 0,8929
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 44,0000
surface_wr_p2 42,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 44,8276
surface_wr_p2_stable 43,7500
p1_surface_matches 25,0000
p2_surface_matches 28,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1200
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8333
p2_confidence 0,9333
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,1954
first_serve_won_diff -2,2943
second_serve_won_diff -3,2371
bp_saved_diff -1,1131
bp_converted_diff 0,0037
aces_per_match_diff -2,0386
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 68,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 2,5000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5823
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9215
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4545
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 9,0680
serve_consistency_p2 4,6534
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,2373
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0720
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0594
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1800
utr_p1 0,8435
utr_p2 0,8647
utr_advantage -1,1796
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21871
API ID 15298419
Gamdom ID 563177
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21871,
    "api_id": 15298419,
    "gamdom_id": 563177,
    "player1": "Alexandre Muller",
    "player2": "Marcos Giron",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-08T05:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.73
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.01,
      "p2": 1.81
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.99,
      "p2": 1.79
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.488,
    "prob_p2": 0.512,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.512,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 52,
      "utr_singles": 15.12,
      "utr_ranking": 76,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 44.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 51,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 54,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.12,
      "ranking": 76,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 54,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8435294117647059,
    "utr_p2": 0.8647058823529411,
    "utr_diff": -0.17999999999999972,
    "rank_ratio": 1.2307692307692308,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 68.0,
    "points_diff": 135,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.1131428571428472,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 44.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
    "utr_advantage": -1.179554390563563,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -1,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.20763936477824455,
    "rank_advantage": 12,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.45454545454545453,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 1.142857142857146,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.0037142857142882235,
    "p1_surface_matches": 25,
    "p2_surface_matches": 28,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.195428571428572,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5822784810126582,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9214659685863874,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.0385714285714287,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.2942857142857065,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.12,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.068034716427189,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.653383498093395,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.23730213117513727,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.827586206896555,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.75,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.237142857142878,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8928571428571429,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 2.5,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07200000000000001,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.05942857142857144,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.951867816091957,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}