Alexandre Muller vs Marcos Giron
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 09:30
08 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marcos Giron
Alexandre …: 48,8%
Marcos …: 51,2%
¿Por qué Marcos Giron?
UTR 15,12 vs 15,30
(-0,18)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Alexandre … | Marcos … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,10 | 1,73 | 47,6% |
| Gamdom | 2,01 | 1,81 | 49,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,05 | 1,95 | 48,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Alexandre …: +3,6%
Marcos …: -3,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alexandre Muller
Ranking
#52
UTR Rating
15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking
#76
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
11/25 = 44,0%
Marcos Giron
Ranking
#51
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
12/28 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 12,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,2308 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,2076 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 135,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -1,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 1,1429 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,9519 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8929 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 44,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 44,8276 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 43,7500 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1200 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -6,1954 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,2943 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,2371 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,1131 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0037 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,0386 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 2,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5823 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9215 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4545 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,0680 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,6534 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,2373 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0720 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0594 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8435 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8647 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,1796 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21871
API ID
15298419
Gamdom ID
563177
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21871,
"api_id": 15298419,
"gamdom_id": 563177,
"player1": "Alexandre Muller",
"player2": "Marcos Giron",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-08T05:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.73
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.01,
"p2": 1.81
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.99,
"p2": 1.79
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.488,
"prob_p2": 0.512,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.512,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 52,
"utr_singles": 15.12,
"utr_ranking": 76,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 44.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 51,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 76,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 54,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8647058823529411,
"utr_diff": -0.17999999999999972,
"rank_ratio": 1.2307692307692308,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 68.0,
"points_diff": 135,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.1131428571428472,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 44.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
"utr_advantage": -1.179554390563563,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -1,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.20763936477824455,
"rank_advantage": 12,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.45454545454545453,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 1.142857142857146,
"bp_converted_diff": 0.0037142857142882235,
"p1_surface_matches": 25,
"p2_surface_matches": 28,
"serve_quality_diff": -6.195428571428572,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5822784810126582,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9214659685863874,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.0385714285714287,
"combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.2942857142857065,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.12,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.068034716427189,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.653383498093395,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.23730213117513727,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.827586206896555,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.75,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.237142857142878,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8928571428571429,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 2.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07200000000000001,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.05942857142857144,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.951867816091957,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}