Botic Van de Zandschulp vs Alexander Bublik
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 14:00
08 Ene 2026, 14:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexander Bublik
Botic …: 26,2%
Alexander …: 73,8%
¿Por qué Alexander Bublik?
UTR 15,09 vs 15,95
(-0,88)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Botic … | Alexander … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,20 | 1,36 | 31,3% |
| Gamdom | 2,60 | 1,50 | 38,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,82 | 1,36 | 26,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Botic …: -3,6%
Alexander …: +3,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Botic Van de Zandschulp
Ranking
#75
UTR Rating
15,09 Pro
UTR Ranking
#81
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
16/33 = 48,5%
Alexander Bublik
Ranking
#10
UTR Rating
15,95 Pro
UTR Ranking
#4
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
20/36 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -64,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1467 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,9196 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2099,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -11,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -7,0707 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,3514 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9167 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,4848 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,6486 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 36,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0303 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -15,4254 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,8293 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,6848 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -7,3490 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,1343 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -6,8081 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 18,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 4,0390 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 63,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5904 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9655 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3077 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4375 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,6911 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,5391 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 13,5729 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0488 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0084 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,8800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8353 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9388 | |
| utr_advantage | -5,6628 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21875
API ID
15298424
Gamdom ID
563173
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21875,
"api_id": 15298424,
"gamdom_id": 563173,
"player1": "Botic Van de Zandschulp",
"player2": "Alexander Bublik",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-08T10:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.2,
"p2": 1.3599999999999999
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.6,
"p2": 1.5
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.65,
"p2": 1.47
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2621,
"prob_p2": 0.7379,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7379,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 75,
"utr_singles": 15.09,
"utr_ranking": 81,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 10,
"utr_singles": 15.95,
"utr_ranking": 4,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 36,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 81,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 4,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9388235294117647,
"utr_diff": -0.8800000000000008,
"rank_ratio": 0.14666666666666667,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 48.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
"points_diff": -2099,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -7.348989898989899,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 18.000000000000004,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.484848484848484,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
"utr_advantage": -5.662805662805668,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -11,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.91959284073794,
"rank_advantage": -64,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3076923076923077,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -7.070707070707073,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.134343434343428,
"p1_surface_matches": 33,
"p2_surface_matches": 36,
"serve_quality_diff": -15.425353535353537,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5903614457831325,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9655172413793104,
"aces_per_match_diff": -6.808080808080808,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.829292929292933,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.030303030303030304,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.691054849857662,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.539147473250043,
"surface_rank_synergy": 13.572878671884427,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.64864864864865,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.00000000000001,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.68484848484848,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9166666666666666,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 4.0390000000000015,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 63,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.04884848484848481,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.008444444444444366,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.351351351351354,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}