Botic Van de Zandschulp vs Alexander Bublik
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 14:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexander Bublik
Botic …: 26,2% Alexander …: 73,8%
¿Por qué Alexander Bublik?
UTR 15,09 vs 15,95 (-0,88) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Botic … Alexander … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,20 1,36 31,3%
Gamdom 2,60 1,50 38,5%
IA Fair Odds 3,82 1,36 26,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Botic …: -3,6% Alexander …: +3,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Botic Van de Zandschulp
Ranking #75
UTR Rating 15,09 Pro
UTR Ranking #81
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 16/33 = 48,5%
Alexander Bublik
Ranking #10
UTR Rating 15,95 Pro
UTR Ranking #4
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 20/36 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -64,0000
rank_ratio 0,1467
log_rank_ratio -1,9196
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -2099,0000
best_rank_diff -11,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -7,0707
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,3514
surface_matches_ratio 0,9167
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,4848
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,6486
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,0000
p1_surface_matches 33,0000
p2_surface_matches 36,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0303
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -15,4254
first_serve_won_diff -5,8293
second_serve_won_diff 3,6848
bp_saved_diff -7,3490
bp_converted_diff 4,1343
aces_per_match_diff -6,8081
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 48,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 4,0390
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 63,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5904
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9655
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3077
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4375
serve_consistency_p1 6,6911
serve_consistency_p2 8,5391
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 13,5729
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0488
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0084
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,8800
utr_p1 0,8353
utr_p2 0,9388
utr_advantage -5,6628
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21875
API ID 15298424
Gamdom ID 563173
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21875,
    "api_id": 15298424,
    "gamdom_id": 563173,
    "player1": "Botic Van de Zandschulp",
    "player2": "Alexander Bublik",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-08T10:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.2,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.6,
      "p2": 1.5
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.65,
      "p2": 1.47
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2621,
    "prob_p2": 0.7379,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7379,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 75,
      "utr_singles": 15.09,
      "utr_ranking": 81,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 10,
      "utr_singles": 15.95,
      "utr_ranking": 4,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 81,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.95,
      "ranking": 4,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.9388235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.8800000000000008,
    "rank_ratio": 0.14666666666666667,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 48.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -2099,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -7.348989898989899,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 18.000000000000004,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.484848484848484,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": -5.662805662805668,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -11,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.91959284073794,
    "rank_advantage": -64,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3076923076923077,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -7.070707070707073,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.134343434343428,
    "p1_surface_matches": 33,
    "p2_surface_matches": 36,
    "serve_quality_diff": -15.425353535353537,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5903614457831325,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9655172413793104,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -6.808080808080808,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.829292929292933,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.030303030303030304,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.691054849857662,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.539147473250043,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 13.572878671884427,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.64864864864865,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.00000000000001,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.68484848484848,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9166666666666666,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 4.0390000000000015,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 63,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.04884848484848481,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.008444444444444366,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.351351351351354,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}