Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 09:30
08 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo …: 76,3%
Juncheng …: 23,7%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Sonego?
UTR 15,30 vs 15,33
(+0,11)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Juncheng … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,80 | 2,00 | 55,6% |
| Gamdom | 2,28 | 1,64 | 43,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,31 | 4,22 | 76,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: +23,7%
Juncheng …: -23,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Sonego
Ranking
#40
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#49
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
20/40 = 50,0%
Juncheng Shang
Ranking
#318
UTR Rating
15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking
#45
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
6/14 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 367,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 10,4103 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,3428 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1125,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 26,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 7,1429 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,1296 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,8571 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 44,4444 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 40,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7433 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 5,5887 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,4500 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,7125 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,8625 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,3125 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,2750 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -2,4190 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4714 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,4375 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3750 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 2,2444 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,7118 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 16,7342 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,3670 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2956 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 21,4286 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8729 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8600 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,7159 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21876
API ID
15298422
Gamdom ID
563182
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21876,
"api_id": 15298422,
"gamdom_id": 563182,
"player1": "Lorenzo Sonego",
"player2": "Juncheng Shang",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-08T05:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.8,
"p2": 2.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.28,
"p2": 1.64
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.25,
"p2": 1.63
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7631,
"prob_p2": 0.2369,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7631,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 40,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 49,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 40,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 318,
"utr_singles": 15.33,
"utr_ranking": 45,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.3,
"ranking": 49,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.33,
"ranking": 45,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8729411764705882,
"utr_p2": 0.8600000000000001,
"utr_diff": 0.10999999999999943,
"rank_ratio": 10.41025641025641,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 68.0,
"points_diff": 1125,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.862499999999997,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 2.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
"utr_advantage": 0.7159127888057236,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 26,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.3427915134720863,
"rank_advantage": 367,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.375,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 7.142857142857146,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.3125,
"p1_surface_matches": 40,
"p2_surface_matches": 14,
"serve_quality_diff": 5.588749999999997,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.47136563876652,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.4375,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.2750000000000004,
"combined_confidence": 0.7433333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 3,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.45000000000000284,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 2.2444090529274567,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.71177973512024,
"surface_rank_synergy": 16.734225096229196,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.44444444444444,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.7124999999999986,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.857142857142857,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -2.4189999999999827,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 21.428571428571438,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.367,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.29557142857142854,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.1296296296296315,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}