Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo …: 76,3% Juncheng …: 23,7%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Sonego?
UTR 15,30 vs 15,33 (+0,11) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Juncheng … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,80 2,00 55,6%
Gamdom 2,28 1,64 43,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,31 4,22 76,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: +23,7% Juncheng …: -23,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Sonego
Ranking #40
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #49
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 20/40 = 50,0%
Juncheng Shang
Ranking #318
UTR Rating 15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking #45
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 6/14 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 367,0000
rank_ratio 10,4103
log_rank_ratio 2,3428
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 1125,0000
best_rank_diff 26,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 7,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,1296
surface_matches_ratio 2,8571
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 42,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 44,4444
p1_surface_matches 40,0000
p2_surface_matches 14,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,4867
combined_confidence 0,7433
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 5,5887
first_serve_won_diff 0,4500
second_serve_won_diff 2,7125
bp_saved_diff 3,8625
bp_converted_diff -2,3125
aces_per_match_diff 2,2750
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 68,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -2,4190
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4714
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,4375
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3750
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 2,2444
serve_consistency_p2 5,7118
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 16,7342
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,3670
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2956
elite_surface_amplifier 21,4286
UTR
utr_diff 0,1100
utr_p1 0,8729
utr_p2 0,8600
utr_advantage 0,7159
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21876
API ID 15298422
Gamdom ID 563182
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21876,
    "api_id": 15298422,
    "gamdom_id": 563182,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Sonego",
    "player2": "Juncheng Shang",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-08T05:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8,
      "p2": 2.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.28,
      "p2": 1.64
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.25,
      "p2": 1.63
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7631,
    "prob_p2": 0.2369,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7631,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 40,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 49,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 40,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 318,
      "utr_singles": 15.33,
      "utr_ranking": 45,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 49,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.33,
      "ranking": 45,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8729411764705882,
    "utr_p2": 0.8600000000000001,
    "utr_diff": 0.10999999999999943,
    "rank_ratio": 10.41025641025641,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 68.0,
    "points_diff": 1125,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.862499999999997,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
    "utr_advantage": 0.7159127888057236,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 26,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.3427915134720863,
    "rank_advantage": 367,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 7.142857142857146,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.3125,
    "p1_surface_matches": 40,
    "p2_surface_matches": 14,
    "serve_quality_diff": 5.588749999999997,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.47136563876652,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.4375,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.2750000000000004,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7433333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.45000000000000284,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.2444090529274567,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.71177973512024,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 16.734225096229196,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.44444444444444,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.7124999999999986,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.857142857142857,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -2.4189999999999827,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 21.428571428571438,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.367,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.29557142857142854,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.1296296296296315,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}