Karolina Muchova vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 07:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Karolina …: 45,7% Ekaterina …: 54,3%
¿Por qué Ekaterina Alexandrova?
UTR 12,57 vs 12,74 (-0,23) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Karolina … Ekaterina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,91 52,4%
Gamdom 2,33 1,64 42,9%
IA Fair Odds 2,19 1,84 45,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Karolina …: -4,3% Ekaterina …: +4,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Karolina Muchova
Ranking #19
UTR Rating 12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #18
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 24/37 = 64,9%
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ranking #11
UTR Rating 12,74 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 24/40 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -10,0000
rank_ratio 0,5000
log_rank_ratio -0,6931
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -1487,0000
best_rank_diff 2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 4,8649
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,3237
surface_matches_ratio 0,9250
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,8649
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,4146
surface_wr_p2_stable 59,0909
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 40,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2973
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,0351
first_serve_won_diff -0,7078
second_serve_won_diff 0,4679
bp_saved_diff 0,1101
bp_converted_diff -7,0044
aces_per_match_diff -0,4108
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 48,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 12,7000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0982
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0568
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5455
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2222
serve_consistency_p1 6,2657
serve_consistency_p2 9,8063
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -3,3721
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1586
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0900
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2300
utr_p1 0,5376
utr_p2 0,5647
utr_advantage -1,8132
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21877
API ID 15302200
Gamdom ID 564718
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21877,
    "api_id": 15302200,
    "gamdom_id": 564718,
    "player1": "Karolina Muchova",
    "player2": "Ekaterina Alexandrova",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-08T03:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9100000000000001,
      "p2": 1.9100000000000001
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.33,
      "p2": 1.64
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.27,
      "p2": 1.62
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4572,
    "prob_p2": 0.5428,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5428,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 19,
      "utr_singles": 12.57,
      "utr_ranking": 18,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 11,
      "utr_singles": 12.74,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 40,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.57,
      "ranking": 18,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.74,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5376470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.5647058823529413,
    "utr_diff": -0.23000000000000043,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": -1487,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.11013513513513118,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 19.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.86486486486487,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.813165155695707,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.6931471805599453,
    "rank_advantage": -10,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2222222222222222,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 4.86486486486487,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.004391891891892,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 40,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.0351351351351283,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.098159509202454,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0568181818181819,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.41081081081081017,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.7077702702702737,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2972972972972973,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.2656820112356755,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.806316342771519,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -3.372067364886224,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.41463414634146,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.09090909090909,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.4679054054054035,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.925,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 12.699999999999989,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1586486486486487,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08999999999999997,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.323725055432369,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}