Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 06:35
08 Ene 2026, 06:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 71,5%
Paula …: 28,5%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,62
(+0,29)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elena … | Paula … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,30 | 3,50 | 76,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,19 | 5,00 | 84,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,40 | 3,51 | 71,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elena …: -1,4%
Paula …: +1,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
43/55 = 78,2%
Paula Badosa
Ranking
#26
UTR Rating
12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking
#12
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
13/22 = 59,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 20,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 5,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,6094 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 4175,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -1,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 19,0909 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 16,1017 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,5000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 78,1818 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 59,0909 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 76,2712 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,6923 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 22,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,5636 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 6,7346 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,3627 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,4200 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 5,7727 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,8718 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,0636 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 40,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 14,2310 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8980 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7886 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6471 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 2,5022 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,7250 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 30,7256 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2618 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1109 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 38,1818 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5753 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5412 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,2754 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21881
API ID
15302203
Gamdom ID
564691
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21881,
"api_id": 15302203,
"gamdom_id": 564691,
"player1": "Elena Rybakina",
"player2": "Paula Badosa",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-08T02:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.19,
"p2": 5.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.2,
"p2": 4.53
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.715,
"prob_p2": 0.285,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.715,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 12.98,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
"wr_surface_wins": 43,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 26,
"utr_singles": 12.62,
"utr_ranking": 12,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.09090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 22,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.98,
"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.62,
"ranking": 12,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5411764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.2900000000000009,
"rank_ratio": 5.0,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 4175,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 5.7727272727272805,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 39.99999999999998,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
"surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
"surface_wr_p2": 59.09090909090909,
"utr_advantage": 2.2754021184778415,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -1,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.6094379124341003,
"rank_advantage": 20,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 19.090909090909093,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.8718181818181705,
"p1_surface_matches": 55,
"p2_surface_matches": 22,
"serve_quality_diff": 6.734636363636362,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7886178861788617,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.0636363636363635,
"combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.36272727272727,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
"serve_consistency_p1": 2.502165606534781,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.725040255567142,
"surface_rank_synergy": 30.72563287374192,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.692307692307686,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.4200000000000017,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.5,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 14.230999999999995,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 38.18181818181819,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.26181818181818184,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.11090909090909096,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 16.101694915254242,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}