Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 06:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 71,5% Paula …: 28,5%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,62 (+0,29) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elena … Paula … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,30 3,50 76,9%
Gamdom 1,19 5,00 84,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,40 3,51 71,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Elena …: -1,4% Paula …: +1,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking #1
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 100% (10p)
WR Hard 43/55 = 78,2%
Paula Badosa
Ranking #26
UTR Rating 12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #12
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 13/22 = 59,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 20,0000
rank_ratio 5,0000
log_rank_ratio 1,6094
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 4175,0000
best_rank_diff -1,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 19,0909
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 16,1017
surface_matches_ratio 2,5000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 78,1818
surface_wr_p2 59,0909
surface_wr_p1_stable 76,2712
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,6923
p1_surface_matches 55,0000
p2_surface_matches 22,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5636
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7333
combined_confidence 0,8667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 6,7346
first_serve_won_diff 4,3627
second_serve_won_diff 1,4200
bp_saved_diff 5,7727
bp_converted_diff 2,8718
aces_per_match_diff 2,0636
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff 40,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 14,2310
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8980
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7886
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6471
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6000
serve_consistency_p1 2,5022
serve_consistency_p2 10,7250
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 30,7256
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2618
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1109
elite_surface_amplifier 38,1818
UTR
utr_diff 0,2900
utr_p1 0,5753
utr_p2 0,5412
utr_advantage 2,2754
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21881
API ID 15302203
Gamdom ID 564691
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21881,
    "api_id": 15302203,
    "gamdom_id": 564691,
    "player1": "Elena Rybakina",
    "player2": "Paula Badosa",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-08T02:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.19,
      "p2": 5.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.53
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.715,
    "prob_p2": 0.285,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.715,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 12.98,
      "utr_ranking": 1,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
      "wr_surface_wins": 43,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 26,
      "utr_singles": 12.62,
      "utr_ranking": 12,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.09090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 22,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.98,
      "ranking": 1,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.62,
      "ranking": 12,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5752941176470588,
    "utr_p2": 0.5411764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.2900000000000009,
    "rank_ratio": 5.0,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 4175,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.7727272727272805,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 39.99999999999998,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
    "surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
    "surface_wr_p2": 59.09090909090909,
    "utr_advantage": 2.2754021184778415,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -1,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.6094379124341003,
    "rank_advantage": 20,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 19.090909090909093,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.8718181818181705,
    "p1_surface_matches": 55,
    "p2_surface_matches": 22,
    "serve_quality_diff": 6.734636363636362,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7886178861788617,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.0636363636363635,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.36272727272727,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.502165606534781,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.725040255567142,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 30.72563287374192,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.692307692307686,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.4200000000000017,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.5,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 14.230999999999995,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 38.18181818181819,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.26181818181818184,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.11090909090909096,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 16.101694915254242,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}