Elise Mertens vs Barbora Krejcikova
United Cup | Hard |
08 Ene 2026, 12:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Barbora Krejcikova
Elise …: 37,8% Barbora …: 62,2%
¿Por qué Barbora Krejcikova?
UTR 12,45 vs 12,41 (+0,02) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elise … Barbora … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,80 52,4%
Gamdom 1,68 2,19 59,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,65 1,61 37,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Elise …: -10,7% Barbora …: +10,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elise Mertens
Ranking #21
UTR Rating 12,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #27
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Barbora Krejcikova
Ranking #58
UTR Rating 12,41 Pro
UTR Ranking #31
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 11/17 = 64,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 44,0000
rank_ratio 3,3158
log_rank_ratio 1,1987
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 979,0000
best_rank_diff -10,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -9,5335
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,6421
surface_matches_ratio 1,7059
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,1724
surface_wr_p2 64,7059
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,5455
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,9048
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 17,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1034
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 0,5667
combined_confidence 0,7667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,3368
first_serve_won_diff -0,2059
second_serve_won_diff -1,2118
bp_saved_diff -1,0000
bp_converted_diff -3,3294
aces_per_match_diff 1,4016
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 8,6900
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8182
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7669
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 12,2371
serve_consistency_p2 11,3328
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -11,4277
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0077
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1911
elite_surface_amplifier -19,0669
UTR
utr_diff 0,0200
utr_p1 0,5224
utr_p2 0,5200
utr_advantage 0,1609
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21897
API ID 15325812
Gamdom ID 578229
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21897,
    "api_id": 15325812,
    "gamdom_id": 578229,
    "player1": "Elise Mertens",
    "player2": "Barbora Krejcikova",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-08T08:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9090909090909092,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.68,
      "p2": 2.19
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.66,
      "p2": 2.18
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.378,
    "prob_p2": 0.622,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.622,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 21,
      "utr_singles": 12.45,
      "utr_ranking": 27,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 58,
      "utr_singles": 12.41,
      "utr_ranking": 31,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.70588235294117,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.45,
      "ranking": 27,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.41,
      "ranking": 31,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5223529411764706,
    "utr_p2": 0.52,
    "utr_diff": 0.019999999999999574,
    "rank_ratio": 3.3157894736842106,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": 979,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.000000000000007,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 8.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.70588235294117,
    "utr_advantage": 0.16090104585679463,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -10,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.1986957472250923,
    "rank_advantage": 44,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -9.53346855983773,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.3294117647058883,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 17,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.3367748478701884,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7668711656441718,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.4016227180527387,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.20588235294117396,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.237078957503922,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.332752678576114,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -11.427728218981612,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.904761904761905,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.2117647058823522,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.7058823529411764,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 8.689999999999998,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -19.06693711967546,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.007724137931034436,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.19105882352941173,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.642135642135647,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}