Elise Mertens vs Barbora Krejcikova
United Cup | Hard |
08 Ene 2026, 12:25
08 Ene 2026, 12:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Barbora Krejcikova
Elise …: 37,8%
Barbora …: 62,2%
¿Por qué Barbora Krejcikova?
UTR 12,45 vs 12,41
(+0,02)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elise … | Barbora … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,91 | 1,80 | 52,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,68 | 2,19 | 59,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,65 | 1,61 | 37,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elise …: -10,7%
Barbora …: +10,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elise Mertens
Ranking
#21
UTR Rating
12,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#27
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
16/29 = 55,2%
Barbora Krejcikova
Ranking
#58
UTR Rating
12,41 Pro
UTR Ranking
#31
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
11/17 = 64,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 44,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 3,3158 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,1987 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 979,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -10,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -9,5335 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -5,6421 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,7059 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 55,1724 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,7059 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,5455 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 61,9048 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 17,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1034 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,5667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,3368 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,2059 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,2118 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -3,3294 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,4016 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 8,6900 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7669 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 12,2371 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,3328 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -11,4277 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0077 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1911 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -19,0669 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5224 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5200 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,1609 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21897
API ID
15325812
Gamdom ID
578229
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21897,
"api_id": 15325812,
"gamdom_id": 578229,
"player1": "Elise Mertens",
"player2": "Barbora Krejcikova",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-08T08:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.9090909090909092,
"p2": 1.8
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.68,
"p2": 2.19
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.66,
"p2": 2.18
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.378,
"prob_p2": 0.622,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.622,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 21,
"utr_singles": 12.45,
"utr_ranking": 27,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 58,
"utr_singles": 12.41,
"utr_ranking": 31,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.70588235294117,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 17,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.45,
"ranking": 27,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.41,
"ranking": 31,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.52,
"utr_diff": 0.019999999999999574,
"rank_ratio": 3.3157894736842106,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": 979,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.000000000000007,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 8.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.70588235294117,
"utr_advantage": 0.16090104585679463,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -10,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.1986957472250923,
"rank_advantage": 44,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -9.53346855983773,
"bp_converted_diff": -3.3294117647058883,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 17,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.3367748478701884,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7668711656441718,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.4016227180527387,
"combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.20588235294117396,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
"serve_consistency_p1": 12.237078957503922,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.332752678576114,
"surface_rank_synergy": -11.427728218981612,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.904761904761905,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.2117647058823522,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.7058823529411764,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 8.689999999999998,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -19.06693711967546,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.007724137931034436,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.19105882352941173,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.642135642135647,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}