Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Pegula
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 12:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jessica Pegula
Dayana …: 34,7% Jessica …: 65,3%
¿Por qué Jessica Pegula?
UTR 12,26 vs 12,75 (-0,49) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Dayana … Jessica … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,20 1,36 31,3%
Gamdom 3,30 1,36 30,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,89 1,53 34,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Dayana …: +4,8% Jessica …: -4,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Dayana Yastremska
Ranking #28
UTR Rating 12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #51
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Jessica Pegula
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 34/49 = 69,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -21,0000
rank_ratio 0,2222
log_rank_ratio -1,5041
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -3979,0000
best_rank_diff -18,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -14,2153
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -13,1561
surface_matches_ratio 0,5918
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,1724
surface_wr_p2 69,3878
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,5455
surface_wr_p2_stable 67,9245
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 49,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1034
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,2865
first_serve_won_diff -3,4005
second_serve_won_diff 3,7350
bp_saved_diff 1,0611
bp_converted_diff -1,7005
aces_per_match_diff 0,9331
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 72,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -4,5000
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8083
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2132
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3571
serve_consistency_p1 13,8328
serve_consistency_p2 8,0258
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 21,3810
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0727
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1729
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4900
utr_p1 0,5059
utr_p2 0,5635
utr_advantage -3,9059
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21899
API ID 15302185
Gamdom ID 564713
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21899,
    "api_id": 15302185,
    "gamdom_id": 564713,
    "player1": "Dayana Yastremska",
    "player2": "Jessica Pegula",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-08T08:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.2,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.3,
      "p2": 1.36
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.14,
      "p2": 1.36
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3466,
    "prob_p2": 0.6534,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6534,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 28,
      "utr_singles": 12.26,
      "utr_ranking": 51,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 12.75,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 49,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.26,
      "ranking": 51,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.75,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5058823529411766,
    "utr_p2": 0.5635294117647058,
    "utr_diff": -0.48999999999999844,
    "rank_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 72.0,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": -3979,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.0610837438423601,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 9.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
    "surface_wr_p2": 69.38775510204081,
    "utr_advantage": -3.905938620964515,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -18,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.5040773967762742,
    "rank_advantage": -21,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8333333333333334,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.35714285714285715,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -14.215341308937369,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.7004926108374505,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 49,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.2865376495425807,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8083333333333333,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.213235294117647,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.9331456720619284,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.400492610837439,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.83284012037954,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.025836491631534,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 21.380973550232753,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 67.9245283018868,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.7349753694581267,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5918367346938775,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -4.5,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0727241379310345,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17287755102040814,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.156089193825052,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}