Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Pegula
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 12:35
08 Ene 2026, 12:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jessica Pegula
Dayana …: 34,7%
Jessica …: 65,3%
¿Por qué Jessica Pegula?
UTR 12,26 vs 12,75
(-0,49)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Dayana … | Jessica … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,20 | 1,36 | 31,3% |
| Gamdom | 3,30 | 1,36 | 30,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,89 | 1,53 | 34,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Dayana …: +4,8%
Jessica …: -4,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Dayana Yastremska
Ranking
#28
UTR Rating
12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#51
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
16/29 = 55,2%
Jessica Pegula
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
34/49 = 69,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -21,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2222 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,5041 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -3979,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -18,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -14,2153 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -13,1561 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5918 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 55,1724 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 69,3878 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,5455 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 67,9245 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 49,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1034 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,2865 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,4005 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,7350 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,0611 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,7005 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,9331 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -4,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8083 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,2132 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3571 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,8328 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,0258 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 21,3810 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0727 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1729 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5059 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5635 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,9059 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21899
API ID
15302185
Gamdom ID
564713
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21899,
"api_id": 15302185,
"gamdom_id": 564713,
"player1": "Dayana Yastremska",
"player2": "Jessica Pegula",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-08T08:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.2,
"p2": 1.3599999999999999
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.3,
"p2": 1.36
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.14,
"p2": 1.36
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3466,
"prob_p2": 0.6534,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6534,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 28,
"utr_singles": 12.26,
"utr_ranking": 51,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 12.75,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
"wr_surface_wins": 34,
"wr_surface_total": 49,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 51,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5635294117647058,
"utr_diff": -0.48999999999999844,
"rank_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 72.0,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": -3979,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.0610837438423601,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 9.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
"surface_wr_p2": 69.38775510204081,
"utr_advantage": -3.905938620964515,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -18,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.5040773967762742,
"rank_advantage": -21,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8333333333333334,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.35714285714285715,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -14.215341308937369,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.7004926108374505,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 49,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.2865376495425807,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8083333333333333,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.213235294117647,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.9331456720619284,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.400492610837439,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.83284012037954,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.025836491631534,
"surface_rank_synergy": 21.380973550232753,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 67.9245283018868,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.7349753694581267,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5918367346938775,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -4.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0727241379310345,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17287755102040814,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.156089193825052,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}