Sebastian Korda vs Alex Michelsen
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 11:10
09 Ene 2026, 11:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastian Korda
Sebastian …: 65,6%
Alex …: 34,4%
¿Por qué Sebastian Korda?
UTR 15,47 vs 15,12
(+0,44)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sebastian … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,50 | 2,63 | 66,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,46 | 2,75 | 68,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,52 | 2,91 | 65,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sebastian …: +1,9%
Alex …: -1,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastian Korda
Ranking
#53
UTR Rating
15,47 Pro
UTR Ranking
#29
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
17/30 = 56,7%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking
#38
UTR Rating
15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking
#87
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -9,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8043 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2177 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -210,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 15,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 6,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 5,8824 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8824 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 56,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 55,8824 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 34,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 13,4740 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,9898 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,4075 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 7,0904 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 6,2396 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,9784 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 5,3000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9722 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9762 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5455 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7273 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 12,9741 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,8755 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,4515 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0757 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0090 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,4400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8835 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8318 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,8777 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21901
API ID
15298528
Gamdom ID
563247
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21901,
"api_id": 15298528,
"gamdom_id": 563247,
"player1": "Sebastian Korda",
"player2": "Alex Michelsen",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-09T07:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5,
"p2": 2.63
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.46,
"p2": 2.75
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.46,
"p2": 2.67
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.656,
"prob_p2": 0.344,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.656,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 53,
"utr_singles": 15.47,
"utr_ranking": 29,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.666666666666664,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 38,
"utr_singles": 15.12,
"utr_ranking": 87,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 34,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.47,
"ranking": 29,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.12,
"ranking": 87,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.4399999999999995,
"rank_ratio": 0.8043478260869565,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": -210,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 7.090392156862755,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 10.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 56.666666666666664,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 2.877697841726616,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 15,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.21772348384487053,
"rank_advantage": -9,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 6.666666666666664,
"bp_converted_diff": 6.23960784313725,
"p1_surface_matches": 30,
"p2_surface_matches": 34,
"serve_quality_diff": 13.474000000000004,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9722222222222222,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.97843137254902,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.989803921568637,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.13333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 12.974072359957754,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.875460968158247,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.4514898922991364,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.88235294117647,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.4074509803921558,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8823529411764706,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 5.299999999999983,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07566666666666666,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.009000000000000008,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.882352941176471,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}