Sebastian Korda vs Alex Michelsen
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 11:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastian Korda
Sebastian …: 65,6% Alex …: 34,4%
¿Por qué Sebastian Korda?
UTR 15,47 vs 15,12 (+0,44) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sebastian … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,50 2,63 66,7%
Gamdom 1,46 2,75 68,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,52 2,91 65,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Sebastian …: +1,9% Alex …: -1,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastian Korda
Ranking #53
UTR Rating 15,47 Pro
UTR Ranking #29
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 17/30 = 56,7%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking #38
UTR Rating 15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking #87
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -9,0000
rank_ratio 0,8043
log_rank_ratio -0,2177
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -210,0000
best_rank_diff 15,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 6,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 5,8824
surface_matches_ratio 0,8824
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 56,6667
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,8824
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 30,0000
p2_surface_matches 34,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1333
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 13,4740
first_serve_won_diff 4,9898
second_serve_won_diff 3,4075
bp_saved_diff 7,0904
bp_converted_diff 6,2396
aces_per_match_diff 4,9784
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 5,3000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9722
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9762
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5455
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7273
serve_consistency_p1 12,9741
serve_consistency_p2 10,8755
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,4515
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0757
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0090
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,4400
utr_p1 0,8835
utr_p2 0,8318
utr_advantage 2,8777
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21901
API ID 15298528
Gamdom ID 563247
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21901,
    "api_id": 15298528,
    "gamdom_id": 563247,
    "player1": "Sebastian Korda",
    "player2": "Alex Michelsen",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-09T07:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.63
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.46,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.46,
      "p2": 2.67
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.656,
    "prob_p2": 0.344,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.656,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 53,
      "utr_singles": 15.47,
      "utr_ranking": 29,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.666666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 38,
      "utr_singles": 15.12,
      "utr_ranking": 87,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 34,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.47,
      "ranking": 29,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.12,
      "ranking": 87,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8835294117647059,
    "utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.4399999999999995,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8043478260869565,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": -210,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 7.090392156862755,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 56.666666666666664,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 2.877697841726616,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 15,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.21772348384487053,
    "rank_advantage": -9,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 6.666666666666664,
    "bp_converted_diff": 6.23960784313725,
    "p1_surface_matches": 30,
    "p2_surface_matches": 34,
    "serve_quality_diff": 13.474000000000004,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9722222222222222,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.97843137254902,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.989803921568637,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.13333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.974072359957754,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.875460968158247,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.4514898922991364,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.88235294117647,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.4074509803921558,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8823529411764706,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 5.299999999999983,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07566666666666666,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.009000000000000008,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.882352941176471,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}