Maya Joint vs Iga Swiatek
United Cup | Hard |
09 Ene 2026, 10:30
09 Ene 2026, 10:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Maya …: 45,9%
Iga …: 54,1%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,15 vs 12,90
(-0,74)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Maya … | Iga … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 8,50 | 1,05 | 11,8% |
| Gamdom | 12,00 | 1,03 | 8,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,18 | 1,85 | 45,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Maya …: +34,9%
Iga …: -34,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maya Joint
Ranking
#31
UTR Rating
12,15 Pro
UTR Ranking
#68
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
29/47 = 61,7%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking
#2
UTR Rating
12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -30,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0625 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,7726 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -6639,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -31,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -17,1440 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -16,0014 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9038 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 61,7021 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 78,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,7843 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 76,7857 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 47,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 52,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2340 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -6,6184 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -7,0357 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,5598 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,1481 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -4,8991 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,3163 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -42,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -45,4700 | |
| current_streak_diff | -4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4054 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0586 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7778 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,2813 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,7087 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 47,5333 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1470 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2585 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,7400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4918 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5788 | |
| utr_advantage | -5,8964 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21903
API ID
15325934
Gamdom ID
578263
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21903,
"api_id": 15325934,
"gamdom_id": 578263,
"player1": "Maya Joint",
"player2": "Iga Swiatek",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-09T06:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 8.5,
"p2": 1.05
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 12.0,
"p2": 1.03
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 11.84,
"p2": 1.03
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4589,
"prob_p2": 0.5411,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5411,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 31,
"utr_singles": 12.15,
"utr_ranking": 68,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 61.702127659574465,
"wr_surface_wins": 29,
"wr_surface_total": 47,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 2,
"utr_singles": 12.9,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
"wr_surface_wins": 41,
"wr_surface_total": 52,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.15,
"ranking": 68,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.9,
"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.4917647058823529,
"utr_p2": 0.5788235294117647,
"utr_diff": -0.7400000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 0.0625,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": -6639,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.1480769230769283,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -42.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 61.702127659574465,
"surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
"utr_advantage": -5.896414342629484,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -31,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.772588722239781,
"rank_advantage": -30,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7777777777777778,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -17.144026186579374,
"bp_converted_diff": -4.899140752864156,
"p1_surface_matches": 47,
"p2_surface_matches": 52,
"serve_quality_diff": -6.618375613747958,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.40540540540540543,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.3162847790507366,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -4,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -7.035720130932901,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.23404255319148937,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.281298885833728,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.708726780456303,
"surface_rank_synergy": 47.53333365869346,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.78431372549019,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.559819967266776,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9038461538461539,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -45.47000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1470212765957447,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2584615384615384,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.0014005602241,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}