Maya Joint vs Iga Swiatek
United Cup | Hard |
09 Ene 2026, 10:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Maya …: 45,9% Iga …: 54,1%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,15 vs 12,90 (-0,74) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maya … Iga … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 8,50 1,05 11,8%
Gamdom 12,00 1,03 8,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,18 1,85 45,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Maya …: +34,9% Iga …: -34,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maya Joint
Ranking #31
UTR Rating 12,15 Pro
UTR Ranking #68
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 29/47 = 61,7%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking #2
UTR Rating 12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -30,0000
rank_ratio 0,0625
log_rank_ratio -2,7726
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -6639,0000
best_rank_diff -31,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -17,1440
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -16,0014
surface_matches_ratio 0,9038
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 61,7021
surface_wr_p2 78,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,7843
surface_wr_p2_stable 76,7857
p1_surface_matches 47,0000
p2_surface_matches 52,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2340
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,6184
first_serve_won_diff -7,0357
second_serve_won_diff -1,5598
bp_saved_diff -3,1481
bp_converted_diff -4,8991
aces_per_match_diff -1,3163
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff -42,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -45,4700
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,4054
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0586
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7778
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 9,2813
serve_consistency_p2 11,7087
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 47,5333
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1470
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2585
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,7400
utr_p1 0,4918
utr_p2 0,5788
utr_advantage -5,8964
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21903
API ID 15325934
Gamdom ID 578263
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21903,
    "api_id": 15325934,
    "gamdom_id": 578263,
    "player1": "Maya Joint",
    "player2": "Iga Swiatek",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-09T06:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 8.5,
      "p2": 1.05
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 12.0,
      "p2": 1.03
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 11.84,
      "p2": 1.03
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4589,
    "prob_p2": 0.5411,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5411,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 31,
      "utr_singles": 12.15,
      "utr_ranking": 68,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 61.702127659574465,
      "wr_surface_wins": 29,
      "wr_surface_total": 47,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 2,
      "utr_singles": 12.9,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
      "wr_surface_wins": 41,
      "wr_surface_total": 52,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.15,
      "ranking": 68,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.9,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4917647058823529,
    "utr_p2": 0.5788235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.7400000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 0.0625,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": -6639,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.1480769230769283,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -42.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 61.702127659574465,
    "surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
    "utr_advantage": -5.896414342629484,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -31,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.772588722239781,
    "rank_advantage": -30,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7777777777777778,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -17.144026186579374,
    "bp_converted_diff": -4.899140752864156,
    "p1_surface_matches": 47,
    "p2_surface_matches": 52,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.618375613747958,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.40540540540540543,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.3162847790507366,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.035720130932901,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.23404255319148937,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.281298885833728,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.708726780456303,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 47.53333365869346,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.78431372549019,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.559819967266776,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9038461538461539,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -45.47000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1470212765957447,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2584615384615384,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.0014005602241,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}