Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz
United Cup | Hard |
09 Ene 2026, 12:05
09 Ene 2026, 12:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Alex …: 80,3%
Hubert …: 19,7%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 15,89 vs 15,65
(+0,23)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Alex … | Hubert … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,44 | 2,63 | 69,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,50 | 2,60 | 66,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,24 | 5,09 | 80,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Alex …: +15,7%
Hubert …: -15,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alex de Minaur
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
39/55 = 70,9%
Hubert Hurkacz
Ranking
#55
UTR Rating
15,65 Pro
UTR Ranking
#14
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
7/14 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 77,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 13,8333 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,6271 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| points_diff | 3370,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 20,9091 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 14,4887 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,9286 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 70,9091 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 69,4915 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,4182 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7433 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -14,2603 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,1205 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 5,6665 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,7164 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 9,5022 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -7,2000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -42,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -19,4500 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8100 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,2167 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5882 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,6444 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,2168 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 54,9299 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1321 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0770 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 62,7273 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9376 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9106 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,4506 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21904
API ID
15325935
Gamdom ID
578265
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21904,
"api_id": 15325935,
"gamdom_id": 578265,
"player1": "Alex de Minaur",
"player2": "Hubert Hurkacz",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-09T08:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.44,
"p2": 2.63
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.5,
"p2": 2.6
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.49,
"p2": 2.55
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8034,
"prob_p2": 0.1966,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8034,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 15.89,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 39,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 55,
"utr_singles": 15.65,
"utr_ranking": 14,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.89,
"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.65,
"ranking": 14,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.9376470588235295,
"utr_p2": 0.9105882352941177,
"utr_diff": 0.23000000000000043,
"rank_ratio": 13.833333333333334,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 48.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 3370,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.7163636363636385,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -41.99999999999998,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 70.9090909090909,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 1.4506464837590691,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.627081138568543,
"rank_advantage": 77,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5882352941176471,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 20.909090909090907,
"bp_converted_diff": 9.502207792207791,
"p1_surface_matches": 55,
"p2_surface_matches": 14,
"serve_quality_diff": -14.260311688311688,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.81,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.2166666666666666,
"aces_per_match_diff": -7.2,
"combined_confidence": 0.7433333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.1205194805194623,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.41818181818181815,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.644350918435133,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.216837726600355,
"surface_rank_synergy": 54.92987835188771,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.49152542372882,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 5.666493506493509,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.9285714285714284,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -19.44999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 62.72727272727272,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13209090909090915,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07699999999999996,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 14.488700564971754,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}