Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz
United Cup | Hard |
09 Ene 2026, 12:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Alex …: 80,3% Hubert …: 19,7%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 15,89 vs 15,65 (+0,23) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alex … Hubert … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,63 69,4%
Gamdom 1,50 2,60 66,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,24 5,09 80,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Alex …: +15,7% Hubert …: -15,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alex de Minaur
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 39/55 = 70,9%
Hubert Hurkacz
Ranking #55
UTR Rating 15,65 Pro
UTR Ranking #14
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 7/14 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 77,0000
rank_ratio 13,8333
log_rank_ratio 2,6271
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 3370,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 20,9091
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 14,4887
surface_matches_ratio 3,9286
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 70,9091
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 69,4915
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 55,0000
p2_surface_matches 14,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,4182
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,4867
combined_confidence 0,7433
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -14,2603
first_serve_won_diff -3,1205
second_serve_won_diff 5,6665
bp_saved_diff -2,7164
bp_converted_diff 9,5022
aces_per_match_diff -7,2000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 48,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff -42,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -19,4500
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8100
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2167
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5882
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6000
serve_consistency_p1 6,6444
serve_consistency_p2 9,2168
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 54,9299
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1321
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0770
elite_surface_amplifier 62,7273
UTR
utr_diff 0,2300
utr_p1 0,9376
utr_p2 0,9106
utr_advantage 1,4506
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21904
API ID 15325935
Gamdom ID 578265
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21904,
    "api_id": 15325935,
    "gamdom_id": 578265,
    "player1": "Alex de Minaur",
    "player2": "Hubert Hurkacz",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-09T08:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.63
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.49,
      "p2": 2.55
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8034,
    "prob_p2": 0.1966,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8034,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 15.89,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 39,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 55,
      "utr_singles": 15.65,
      "utr_ranking": 14,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.89,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.65,
      "ranking": 14,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9376470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.9105882352941177,
    "utr_diff": 0.23000000000000043,
    "rank_ratio": 13.833333333333334,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 48.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 3370,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.7163636363636385,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -41.99999999999998,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 70.9090909090909,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.4506464837590691,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.627081138568543,
    "rank_advantage": 77,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5882352941176471,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 20.909090909090907,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.502207792207791,
    "p1_surface_matches": 55,
    "p2_surface_matches": 14,
    "serve_quality_diff": -14.260311688311688,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.81,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.2166666666666666,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -7.2,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7433333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.1205194805194623,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.41818181818181815,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.644350918435133,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.216837726600355,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 54.92987835188771,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.49152542372882,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 5.666493506493509,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.9285714285714284,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -19.44999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 62.72727272727272,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13209090909090915,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07699999999999996,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 14.488700564971754,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}