Daniil Medvedev vs Kamil Majchrzak
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 14:40
09 Ene 2026, 14:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 68,9%
Kamil …: 31,1%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 15,41
(+0,36)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daniil … | Kamil … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,25 | 4,00 | 80,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,15 | 5,40 | 87,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,45 | 3,22 | 68,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daniil …: -7,3%
Kamil …: +7,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking
#12
UTR Rating
15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking
#8
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
30/46 = 65,2%
Kamil Majchrzak
Ranking
#59
UTR Rating
15,41 Pro
UTR Ranking
#36
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
20/30 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 46,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,5385 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,5126 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1849,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 58,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -1,4493 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -0,7059 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,5333 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 65,2174 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 64,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 64,7059 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3043 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 8,7364 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,6057 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,7835 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -7,9939 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,0343 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,2493 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 1,3110 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8483 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0866 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5238 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5714 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,4907 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,3484 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -2,1922 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1062 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2127 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -2,8986 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8765 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,3033 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21919
API ID
15298538
Gamdom ID
563260
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21919,
"api_id": 15298538,
"gamdom_id": 563260,
"player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
"player2": "Kamil Majchrzak",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-09T10:40:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.25,
"p2": 4.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.15,
"p2": 5.4
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.16,
"p2": 5.26
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.689,
"prob_p2": 0.311,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.689,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 12,
"utr_singles": 15.81,
"utr_ranking": 8,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
"wr_surface_wins": 30,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 59,
"utr_singles": 15.41,
"utr_ranking": 36,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 8,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 36,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.876470588235294,
"utr_diff": 0.3600000000000012,
"rank_ratio": 4.538461538461538,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 1849,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -7.993913043478251,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
"surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
"utr_advantage": 2.303262955854134,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 58,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.5125880864441827,
"rank_advantage": 46,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -1.4492753623188293,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.0343478260869645,
"p1_surface_matches": 46,
"p2_surface_matches": 30,
"serve_quality_diff": 8.736420289855062,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0866141732283465,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.2492753623188406,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.605652173913043,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.490733239825456,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.348447831422492,
"surface_rank_synergy": -2.1921566470205374,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.70588235294117,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.783478260869565,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.5333333333333334,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 1.311000000000007,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -2.8985507246376585,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10617391304347823,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21266666666666656,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.705882352941174,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}