Daniil Medvedev vs Kamil Majchrzak
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 14:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 68,9% Kamil …: 31,1%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 15,41 (+0,36) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniil … Kamil … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,25 4,00 80,0%
Gamdom 1,15 5,40 87,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,45 3,22 68,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniil …: -7,3% Kamil …: +7,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #8
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 30/46 = 65,2%
Kamil Majchrzak
Ranking #59
UTR Rating 15,41 Pro
UTR Ranking #36
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 20/30 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 46,0000
rank_ratio 4,5385
log_rank_ratio 1,5126
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1849,0000
best_rank_diff 58,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -1,4493
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -0,7059
surface_matches_ratio 1,5333
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,2174
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 64,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 64,7059
p1_surface_matches 46,0000
p2_surface_matches 30,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 8,7364
first_serve_won_diff 5,6057
second_serve_won_diff 4,7835
bp_saved_diff -7,9939
bp_converted_diff -1,0343
aces_per_match_diff 2,2493
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 78,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 1,3110
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8483
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0866
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5238
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 10,4907
serve_consistency_p2 6,3484
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,1922
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1062
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2127
elite_surface_amplifier -2,8986
UTR
utr_diff 0,3600
utr_p1 0,9188
utr_p2 0,8765
utr_advantage 2,3033
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21919
API ID 15298538
Gamdom ID 563260
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21919,
    "api_id": 15298538,
    "gamdom_id": 563260,
    "player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
    "player2": "Kamil Majchrzak",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-09T10:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.25,
      "p2": 4.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.15,
      "p2": 5.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.16,
      "p2": 5.26
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.689,
    "prob_p2": 0.311,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.689,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 15.81,
      "utr_ranking": 8,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 59,
      "utr_singles": 15.41,
      "utr_ranking": 36,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.81,
      "ranking": 8,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.41,
      "ranking": 36,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9188235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.876470588235294,
    "utr_diff": 0.3600000000000012,
    "rank_ratio": 4.538461538461538,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 1849,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -7.993913043478251,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": 2.303262955854134,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 58,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.5125880864441827,
    "rank_advantage": 46,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -1.4492753623188293,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.0343478260869645,
    "p1_surface_matches": 46,
    "p2_surface_matches": 30,
    "serve_quality_diff": 8.736420289855062,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0866141732283465,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.2492753623188406,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.605652173913043,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.490733239825456,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.348447831422492,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.1921566470205374,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.70588235294117,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.783478260869565,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5333333333333334,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 1.311000000000007,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -2.8985507246376585,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10617391304347823,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21266666666666656,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.705882352941174,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}