Lorenzo Musetti vs Coleman Wong
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 74,9% Coleman …: 25,2%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Coleman … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,28 3,75 78,1%
Gamdom 1,26 3,90 79,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,34 3,98 74,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: +0,3% Coleman …: -0,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 22/37 = 59,5%
Coleman Wong
Ranking #132
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 22/38 = 57,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 143,0000
rank_ratio 21,4286
log_rank_ratio 3,0647
rank_tier_advantage 4,0000
points_diff 3584,0000
best_rank_diff 122,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 1,5647
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,3937
surface_matches_ratio 0,9737
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 59,4595
surface_wr_p2 57,8947
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,5366
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,1429
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 38,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1892
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,8986
first_serve_won_diff -0,9148
second_serve_won_diff 7,7802
bp_saved_diff 0,1276
bp_converted_diff -3,7560
aces_per_match_diff -3,8876
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -7,3500
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0545
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1746
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7692
serve_consistency_p1 5,9290
serve_consistency_p2 7,4067
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 4,7954
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0484
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2219
elite_surface_amplifier 6,2589
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,9247
utr_p2 0,9247
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21920
API ID 15298423
Gamdom ID 563178
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21920,
    "api_id": 15298423,
    "gamdom_id": 563178,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
    "player2": "Coleman Wong",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-09T05:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.26,
      "p2": 3.9
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.25,
      "p2": 3.84
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7485,
    "prob_p2": 0.2515,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7485,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 15.77,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 132,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.89473684210527,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.77,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9247058823529412,
    "utr_p2": 0.9247058823529412,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 21.428571428571427,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 3584,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.12759601706969903,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -19.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.89473684210527,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 122,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 3.0647251450409425,
    "rank_advantage": 143,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7692307692307693,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 1.5647226173541924,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.7560455192034112,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 38,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.898577524893312,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1746031746031746,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.8876244665718342,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.9147937411095199,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.929011106708809,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.406699291929117,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 4.79544475041967,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.14285714285714,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.7802275960170775,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9736842105263158,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -7.3500000000000085,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 6.2588904694167695,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.04840540540540539,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.22194736842105267,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.3937282229965149,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}