Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 05:00
09 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 76,0%
Karolina …: 24,0%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,57
(+0,32)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elena … | Karolina … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,30 | 3,50 | 76,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,25 | 4,20 | 80,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,32 | 4,16 | 76,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elena …: +3,1%
Karolina …: -3,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
43/55 = 78,2%
Karolina Muchova
Ranking
#19
UTR Rating
12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#18
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
24/37 = 64,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 15,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,3863 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 3962,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 5,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 13,3170 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 12,8566 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4865 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 78,1818 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,8649 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 76,2712 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,4146 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,5636 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 10,0366 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 7,8557 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,7146 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,5103 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,9773 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,6472 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8980 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0982 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6471 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,6440 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,1323 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 18,4612 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2668 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1636 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 13,3170 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5753 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5376 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,5137 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21948
API ID
15302201
Gamdom ID
564714
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21948,
"api_id": 15302201,
"gamdom_id": 564714,
"player1": "Elena Rybakina",
"player2": "Karolina Muchova",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-09T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.25,
"p2": 4.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.23,
"p2": 4.15
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7598,
"prob_p2": 0.2402,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7598,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 12.98,
"utr_ranking": 1,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
"wr_surface_wins": 43,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 19,
"utr_singles": 12.57,
"utr_ranking": 18,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 1,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.57,
"ranking": 18,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5376470588235295,
"utr_diff": 0.3200000000000003,
"rank_ratio": 4.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": 3962,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.5103194103194184,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 19.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.86486486486487,
"utr_advantage": 2.513747054202673,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 5,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.3862943611198906,
"rank_advantage": 15,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 13.316953316953317,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.977346437346434,
"p1_surface_matches": 55,
"p2_surface_matches": 37,
"serve_quality_diff": 10.036589680589678,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.098159509202454,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.6471744471744465,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 7.8557248157248125,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.6439778727214964,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.132303399062621,
"surface_rank_synergy": 18.461217290589207,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.41463414634146,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.714594594594601,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4864864864864864,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 13.316953316953317,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.26681818181818184,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1636486486486487,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.856552294336502,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}