Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elena Rybakina
Elena …: 76,0% Karolina …: 24,0%
¿Por qué Elena Rybakina?
UTR 12,98 vs 12,57 (+0,32) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elena … Karolina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,30 3,50 76,9%
Gamdom 1,25 4,20 80,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,32 4,16 76,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Elena …: +3,1% Karolina …: -3,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elena Rybakina
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 12,98 Pro
UTR Ranking #1
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 100% (10p)
WR Hard 43/55 = 78,2%
Karolina Muchova
Ranking #19
UTR Rating 12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #18
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 24/37 = 64,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 15,0000
rank_ratio 4,0000
log_rank_ratio 1,3863
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 3962,0000
best_rank_diff 5,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 13,3170
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 12,8566
surface_matches_ratio 1,4865
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 78,1818
surface_wr_p2 64,8649
surface_wr_p1_stable 76,2712
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,4146
p1_surface_matches 55,0000
p2_surface_matches 37,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5636
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 10,0366
first_serve_won_diff 7,8557
second_serve_won_diff 2,7146
bp_saved_diff 1,5103
bp_converted_diff 5,9773
aces_per_match_diff 2,6472
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8980
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0982
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6471
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 3,6440
serve_consistency_p2 7,1323
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 18,4612
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2668
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1636
elite_surface_amplifier 13,3170
UTR
utr_diff 0,3200
utr_p1 0,5753
utr_p2 0,5376
utr_advantage 2,5137
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21948
API ID 15302201
Gamdom ID 564714
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21948,
    "api_id": 15302201,
    "gamdom_id": 564714,
    "player1": "Elena Rybakina",
    "player2": "Karolina Muchova",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-09T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.25,
      "p2": 4.2
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.23,
      "p2": 4.15
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7598,
    "prob_p2": 0.2402,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7598,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 12.98,
      "utr_ranking": 1,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.18181818181819,
      "wr_surface_wins": 43,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 19,
      "utr_singles": 12.57,
      "utr_ranking": 18,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.98,
      "ranking": 1,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.57,
      "ranking": 18,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5752941176470588,
    "utr_p2": 0.5376470588235295,
    "utr_diff": 0.3200000000000003,
    "rank_ratio": 4.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 3962,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.5103194103194184,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 19.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 78.18181818181819,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.86486486486487,
    "utr_advantage": 2.513747054202673,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 5,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.3862943611198906,
    "rank_advantage": 15,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 13.316953316953317,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.977346437346434,
    "p1_surface_matches": 55,
    "p2_surface_matches": 37,
    "serve_quality_diff": 10.036589680589678,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8979591836734694,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.098159509202454,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.6471744471744465,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 7.8557248157248125,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5636363636363636,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.6439778727214964,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.132303399062621,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 18.461217290589207,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.27118644067797,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.41463414634146,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.714594594594601,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4864864864864864,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 13.316953316953317,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.26681818181818184,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1636486486486487,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.856552294336502,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}