Raphael Collignon vs Brandon Nakashima
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 09:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Brandon Nakashima
Raphael …: 46,0% Brandon …: 54,0%
¿Por qué Brandon Nakashima?
UTR 14,93 vs 15,41 (-0,59) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Raphael … Brandon … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,30 1,62 43,5%
Gamdom 2,27 1,64 44,1%
IA Fair Odds 2,17 1,85 46,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Raphael …: +4,7% Brandon …: -4,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Raphael Collignon
Ranking #72
UTR Rating 14,93 Pro
UTR Ranking #96
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 21/32 = 65,6%
Brandon Nakashima
Ranking #30
UTR Rating 15,41 Pro
UTR Ranking #33
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 21/39 = 53,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -51,0000
rank_ratio 0,3929
log_rank_ratio -0,9343
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -676,0000
best_rank_diff -44,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 11,7788
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,4005
surface_matches_ratio 0,8205
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,6250
surface_wr_p2 53,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,8889
surface_wr_p2_stable 53,4884
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 39,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3125
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,1769
first_serve_won_diff -1,1284
second_serve_won_diff 4,8380
bp_saved_diff -7,0308
bp_converted_diff 6,9337
aces_per_match_diff -2,5321
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff 28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 6,8640
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9123
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9762
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 5,2864
serve_consistency_p2 6,7900
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -11,0051
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2073
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0125
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5900
utr_p1 0,8082
utr_p2 0,8776
utr_advantage -3,8905
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21957
API ID 15298529
Gamdom ID 563246
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21957,
    "api_id": 15298529,
    "gamdom_id": 563246,
    "player1": "Raphael Collignon",
    "player2": "Brandon Nakashima",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-09T05:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.62
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.27,
      "p2": 1.64
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.25,
      "p2": 1.64
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4601,
    "prob_p2": 0.5399,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5399,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 72,
      "utr_singles": 14.93,
      "utr_ranking": 96,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.625,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 30,
      "utr_singles": 15.41,
      "utr_ranking": 33,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 39,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.93,
      "ranking": 96,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.41,
      "ranking": 33,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8082352941176469,
    "utr_p2": 0.8776470588235296,
    "utr_diff": -0.5900000000000016,
    "rank_ratio": 0.39285714285714285,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": -676,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -7.030769230769231,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 27.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.625,
    "surface_wr_p2": 53.84615384615385,
    "utr_advantage": -3.890537421694703,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -44,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.9343092373768334,
    "rank_advantage": -51,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 11.778846153846153,
    "bp_converted_diff": 6.933653846153852,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 39,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.176891025641041,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9122807017543859,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.532051282051283,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.1283653846153925,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3125,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.286414822125014,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.789994983774643,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -11.005084767179046,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.888888888888886,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.48837209302325,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.837980769230768,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8205128205128205,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 6.864000000000004,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.20725000000000005,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.01253846153846161,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.400516795865634,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}