Juncheng Shang vs Alexander Bublik
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 14:00
09 Ene 2026, 14:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexander Bublik
Juncheng …: 12,0%
Alexander …: 88,0%
¿Por qué Alexander Bublik?
UTR 15,33 vs 15,95
(-0,67)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Juncheng … | Alexander … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,30 | 1,62 | 43,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,12 | 1,73 | 47,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 8,35 | 1,14 | 12,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Juncheng …: -29,3%
Alexander …: +29,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juncheng Shang
Ranking
#318
UTR Rating
15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking
#45
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
6/14 = 42,9%
Alexander Bublik
Ranking
#10
UTR Rating
15,95 Pro
UTR Ranking
#4
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
20/36 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -395,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0271 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -3,6085 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -4,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2730,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -36,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -12,6984 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -7,8463 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,3889 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 44,4444 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 36,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7433 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -18,6344 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,0111 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -4,1333 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -6,5944 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,8889 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -7,4444 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 22,4500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4375 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9655 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4375 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,7032 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,0688 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 45,8217 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3236 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,3394 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,6700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8600 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9388 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,2825 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21958
API ID
15298418
Gamdom ID
578266
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21958,
"api_id": 15298418,
"gamdom_id": 578266,
"player1": "Juncheng Shang",
"player2": "Alexander Bublik",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-09T10:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.62
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.12,
"p2": 1.73
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.42,
"p2": 1.55
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1198,
"prob_p2": 0.8802,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8802,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 318,
"utr_singles": 15.33,
"utr_ranking": 45,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 10,
"utr_singles": 15.95,
"utr_ranking": 4,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 36,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.33,
"ranking": 45,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.95,
"ranking": 4,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8600000000000001,
"utr_p2": 0.9388235294117647,
"utr_diff": -0.6699999999999999,
"rank_ratio": 0.027093596059113302,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": -2730,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -6.5944444444444485,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 30.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
"utr_advantage": -4.282518376478108,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -36,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -3.608457886803362,
"rank_advantage": -395,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -12.698412698412703,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.8888888888888857,
"p1_surface_matches": 14,
"p2_surface_matches": 36,
"serve_quality_diff": -18.634444444444433,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4375,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9655172413793104,
"aces_per_match_diff": -7.444444444444445,
"combined_confidence": 0.7433333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -4,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.011111111111106,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.7032154988798345,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.068823415037032,
"surface_rank_synergy": 45.82168745147128,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.44444444444444,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.00000000000001,
"second_serve_won_diff": -4.133333333333333,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.3888888888888889,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 22.44999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.32357142857142857,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.33944444444444444,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.846296296296304,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}