Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 07:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 79,9% Madison …: 20,1%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,50 (+0,45) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Madison … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,25 4,00 80,0%
Gamdom 1,18 5,20 84,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,25 4,97 79,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: +3,7% Madison …: -3,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Madison Keys
Ranking #9
UTR Rating 12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 6,0000
rank_ratio 7,0000
log_rank_ratio 1,9459
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 6155,0000
best_rank_diff 4,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 10,7143
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,3865
surface_matches_ratio 1,3125
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 75,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 72,2222
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0081
first_serve_won_diff 1,9476
second_serve_won_diff 1,6321
bp_saved_diff 10,8744
bp_converted_diff 4,8872
aces_per_match_diff -0,7277
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,7010
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5209
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7788
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 5,9017
serve_consistency_p2 8,2636
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 20,8490
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3511
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2560
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,4500
utr_p1 0,5788
utr_p2 0,5259
utr_advantage 3,5447
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21960
API ID 15302187
Gamdom ID 564707
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21960,
    "api_id": 15302187,
    "gamdom_id": 564707,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Madison Keys",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-09T03:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.25,
      "p2": 4.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.18,
      "p2": 5.2
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.18,
      "p2": 4.81
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7989,
    "prob_p2": 0.2011,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7989,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 9,
      "utr_singles": 12.5,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.5,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5788235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.5258823529411766,
    "utr_diff": 0.4499999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 7.0,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": 6155,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 10.874404761904763,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
    "utr_advantage": 3.544702638834181,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 4,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.9459101490553132,
    "rank_advantage": 6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 10.714285714285708,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.887202380952374,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.008095238095236823,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.778816199376947,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.7276785714285716,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.9476190476190567,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5209325196515464,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.9016775149549074,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.26357659201855,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 20.849037311306915,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.6321428571428527,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.3125,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0.7009999999999934,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3511428571428571,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.256,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.386473429951693,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}