Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 07:30
09 Ene 2026, 07:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 79,9%
Madison …: 20,1%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,50
(+0,45)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Madison … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,25 | 4,00 | 80,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,18 | 5,20 | 84,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,25 | 4,97 | 79,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: +3,7%
Madison …: -3,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Madison Keys
Ranking
#9
UTR Rating
12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking
#25
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 6,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 7,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,9459 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 6155,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 4,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 10,7143 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 10,3865 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3125 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 75,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 72,2222 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0081 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,9476 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,6321 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 10,8744 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,8872 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,7277 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,7010 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5209 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7788 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,9017 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,2636 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 20,8490 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3511 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2560 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,4500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5259 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,5447 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21960
API ID
15302187
Gamdom ID
564707
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21960,
"api_id": 15302187,
"gamdom_id": 564707,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Madison Keys",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-09T03:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.25,
"p2": 4.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.18,
"p2": 5.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.18,
"p2": 4.81
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7989,
"prob_p2": 0.2011,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7989,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 9,
"utr_singles": 12.5,
"utr_ranking": 25,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 75.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.97,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.5,
"ranking": 25,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5788235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.5258823529411766,
"utr_diff": 0.4499999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 7.0,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": 6155,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 10.874404761904763,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 10.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
"utr_advantage": 3.544702638834181,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 4,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.9459101490553132,
"rank_advantage": 6,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 10.714285714285708,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.887202380952374,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.008095238095236823,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.778816199376947,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.7276785714285716,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.9476190476190567,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5209325196515464,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.9016775149549074,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.26357659201855,
"surface_rank_synergy": 20.849037311306915,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.6321428571428527,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3125,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0.7009999999999934,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3511428571428571,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.256,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.386473429951693,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}