Liudmila Samsonova vs Jessica Pegula
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 09:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jessica Pegula
Liudmila …: 21,9% Jessica …: 78,1%
¿Por qué Jessica Pegula?
UTR 12,36 vs 12,75 (-0,43) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Liudmila … Jessica … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,20 1,36 31,3%
Gamdom 3,15 1,38 31,7%
IA Fair Odds 4,56 1,28 21,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Liudmila …: -7,9% Jessica …: +7,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Liudmila Samsonova
Ranking #18
UTR Rating 12,36 Pro
UTR Ranking #38
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 13/27 = 48,1%
Jessica Pegula
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 34/49 = 69,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -11,0000
rank_ratio 0,3529
log_rank_ratio -1,0415
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -3374,0000
best_rank_diff -9,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -21,2396
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -18,5606
surface_matches_ratio 0,5510
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,1481
surface_wr_p2 69,3878
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,3871
surface_wr_p2_stable 67,9245
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 49,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0370
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,4477
first_serve_won_diff 1,2857
second_serve_won_diff -5,1857
bp_saved_diff -2,8286
bp_converted_diff -1,5143
aces_per_match_diff 1,6803
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 78,0000
momentum_p2 78,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -10,8000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5511
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6290
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2132
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3571
serve_consistency_p1 2,4527
serve_consistency_p2 8,1937
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 22,1201
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0075
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1829
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4300
utr_p1 0,5129
utr_p2 0,5635
utr_advantage -3,4195
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21961
API ID 15302191
Gamdom ID 564720
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21961,
    "api_id": 15302191,
    "gamdom_id": 564720,
    "player1": "Liudmila Samsonova",
    "player2": "Jessica Pegula",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-09T05:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.2,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.15,
      "p2": 1.38
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.12,
      "p2": 1.36
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2192,
    "prob_p2": 0.7808,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7808,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 18,
      "utr_singles": 12.36,
      "utr_ranking": 38,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.148148148148145,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 12.75,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 49,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.36,
      "ranking": 38,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.75,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5129411764705881,
    "utr_p2": 0.5635294117647058,
    "utr_diff": -0.4299999999999997,
    "rank_ratio": 0.35294117647058826,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -3374,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.8285714285714363,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.148148148148145,
    "surface_wr_p2": 69.38775510204081,
    "utr_advantage": -3.419483101391648,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -9,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.041453874828161,
    "rank_advantage": -11,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.35714285714285715,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -21.239606953892668,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.5142857142857196,
    "p1_surface_matches": 27,
    "p2_surface_matches": 49,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.447687074829922,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6290322580645161,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.213235294117647,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.6802721088435373,
    "combined_confidence": 0.95,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.2857142857142776,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5511141116212744,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.037037037037037035,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.452711115019956,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.193657703703115,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 22.12007096195867,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.38709677419355,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 67.9245283018868,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.18571428571429,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5510204081632653,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -10.799999999999983,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0075185185185185355,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18287755102040815,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.56055995130858,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}