Liudmila Samsonova vs Jessica Pegula
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 09:00
09 Ene 2026, 09:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jessica Pegula
Liudmila …: 21,9%
Jessica …: 78,1%
¿Por qué Jessica Pegula?
UTR 12,36 vs 12,75
(-0,43)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Liudmila … | Jessica … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,20 | 1,36 | 31,3% |
| Gamdom | 3,15 | 1,38 | 31,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,56 | 1,28 | 21,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Liudmila …: -7,9%
Jessica …: +7,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Liudmila Samsonova
Ranking
#18
UTR Rating
12,36 Pro
UTR Ranking
#38
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
13/27 = 48,1%
Jessica Pegula
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
34/49 = 69,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -11,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3529 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,0415 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -3374,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -9,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -21,2396 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -18,5606 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5510 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,1481 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 69,3878 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,3871 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 67,9245 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 49,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0370 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,4477 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,2857 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,1857 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,8286 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,5143 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,6803 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -10,8000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5511 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6290 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,2132 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3571 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 2,4527 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,1937 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 22,1201 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0075 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1829 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5129 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5635 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,4195 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21961
API ID
15302191
Gamdom ID
564720
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21961,
"api_id": 15302191,
"gamdom_id": 564720,
"player1": "Liudmila Samsonova",
"player2": "Jessica Pegula",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-09T05:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.2,
"p2": 1.3599999999999999
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.15,
"p2": 1.38
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.12,
"p2": 1.36
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2192,
"prob_p2": 0.7808,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7808,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 18,
"utr_singles": 12.36,
"utr_ranking": 38,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.148148148148145,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 12.75,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
"wr_surface_wins": 34,
"wr_surface_total": 49,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.36,
"ranking": 38,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.75,
"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5635294117647058,
"utr_diff": -0.4299999999999997,
"rank_ratio": 0.35294117647058826,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -3374,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.8285714285714363,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.148148148148145,
"surface_wr_p2": 69.38775510204081,
"utr_advantage": -3.419483101391648,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -9,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.041453874828161,
"rank_advantage": -11,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.35714285714285715,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -21.239606953892668,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.5142857142857196,
"p1_surface_matches": 27,
"p2_surface_matches": 49,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.447687074829922,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6290322580645161,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.213235294117647,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.6802721088435373,
"combined_confidence": 0.95,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.2857142857142776,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5511141116212744,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.037037037037037035,
"serve_consistency_p1": 2.452711115019956,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.193657703703115,
"surface_rank_synergy": 22.12007096195867,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.38709677419355,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 67.9245283018868,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.18571428571429,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5510204081632653,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -10.799999999999983,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0075185185185185355,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18287755102040815,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.56055995130858,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}