Elina Svitolina vs Sonay Kartal
Auckland | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 09:00
09 Ene 2026, 09:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elina Svitolina
Elina …: 75,3%
Sonay …: 24,8%
¿Por qué Elina Svitolina?
UTR 12,66 vs 12,38
(+0,41)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elina … | Sonay … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,33 | 3,40 | 75,2% |
| Gamdom | 1,34 | 3,30 | 74,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,33 | 4,04 | 75,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elina …: +3,4%
Sonay …: -3,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elina Svitolina
Ranking
#12
UTR Rating
12,66 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
17/27 = 63,0%
Sonay Kartal
Ranking
#66
UTR Rating
12,38 Pro
UTR Ranking
#35
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
16/28 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 55,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 5,2308 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,6546 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1655,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 41,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 5,8201 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,6203 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9643 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,9630 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 61,2903 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 56,2500 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2593 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 5,4038 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 7,1812 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -7,7214 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,1683 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,9669 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,0648 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -9,5140 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9645 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6757 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,1667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,2857 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,6855 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,7666 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 9,6297 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0746 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1264 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 11,6402 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,4100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5518 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5035 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,2839 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21962
API ID
15302242
Gamdom ID
564741
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21962,
"api_id": 15302242,
"gamdom_id": 564741,
"player1": "Elina Svitolina",
"player2": "Sonay Kartal",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-09T05:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.33,
"p2": 3.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.34,
"p2": 3.3
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.33,
"p2": 3.27
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7525,
"prob_p2": 0.2475,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7525,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 12,
"utr_singles": 12.66,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.96296296296296,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 66,
"utr_singles": 12.38,
"utr_ranking": 35,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 9,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 35,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5035294117647058,
"utr_diff": 0.41000000000000014,
"rank_ratio": 5.230769230769231,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 1655,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.1682539682539712,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -7.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.9,
"p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.96296296296296,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
"utr_advantage": 3.2839407288746507,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 41,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.65455834771457,
"rank_advantage": 55,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2857142857142857,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 5.820105820105823,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.9669312169312221,
"p1_surface_matches": 27,
"p2_surface_matches": 28,
"serve_quality_diff": 5.403809523809528,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9645390070921985,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6756756756756757,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.064814814814815,
"combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 7.18121693121693,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.25925925925925924,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.685520689922962,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.766571488179454,
"surface_rank_synergy": 9.629704669238244,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.29032258064516,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.25,
"second_serve_won_diff": -7.721428571428568,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9642857142857143,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -9.513999999999996,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 11.640211640211646,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07462962962962971,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12642857142857133,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.62029569892473,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}