Elina Svitolina vs Sonay Kartal
Auckland | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 09:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elina Svitolina
Elina …: 75,3% Sonay …: 24,8%
¿Por qué Elina Svitolina?
UTR 12,66 vs 12,38 (+0,41) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elina … Sonay … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,33 3,40 75,2%
Gamdom 1,34 3,30 74,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,33 4,04 75,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Elina …: +3,4% Sonay …: -3,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elina Svitolina
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 12,66 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 17/27 = 63,0%
Sonay Kartal
Ranking #66
UTR Rating 12,38 Pro
UTR Ranking #35
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 16/28 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 55,0000
rank_ratio 5,2308
log_rank_ratio 1,6546
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1655,0000
best_rank_diff 41,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 5,8201
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,6203
surface_matches_ratio 0,9643
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,9630
surface_wr_p2 57,1429
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,2903
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,2500
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 28,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2593
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 0,9333
combined_confidence 0,9167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 5,4038
first_serve_won_diff 7,1812
second_serve_won_diff -7,7214
bp_saved_diff 0,1683
bp_converted_diff -0,9669
aces_per_match_diff 2,0648
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 78,0000
momentum_diff -8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -9,5140
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9645
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6757
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2857
serve_consistency_p1 8,6855
serve_consistency_p2 7,7666
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 9,6297
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0746
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1264
elite_surface_amplifier 11,6402
UTR
utr_diff 0,4100
utr_p1 0,5518
utr_p2 0,5035
utr_advantage 3,2839
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21962
API ID 15302242
Gamdom ID 564741
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21962,
    "api_id": 15302242,
    "gamdom_id": 564741,
    "player1": "Elina Svitolina",
    "player2": "Sonay Kartal",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-09T05:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.34,
      "p2": 3.3
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.27
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7525,
    "prob_p2": 0.2475,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7525,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 12.66,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.96296296296296,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 66,
      "utr_singles": 12.38,
      "utr_ranking": 35,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.66,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.38,
      "ranking": 35,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5517647058823529,
    "utr_p2": 0.5035294117647058,
    "utr_diff": 0.41000000000000014,
    "rank_ratio": 5.230769230769231,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 1655,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.1682539682539712,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -7.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.96296296296296,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
    "utr_advantage": 3.2839407288746507,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 41,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.65455834771457,
    "rank_advantage": 55,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2857142857142857,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 5.820105820105823,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.9669312169312221,
    "p1_surface_matches": 27,
    "p2_surface_matches": 28,
    "serve_quality_diff": 5.403809523809528,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9645390070921985,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6756756756756757,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.064814814814815,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 7.18121693121693,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25925925925925924,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.685520689922962,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.766571488179454,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 9.629704669238244,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.29032258064516,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.25,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.721428571428568,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9642857142857143,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -9.513999999999996,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 11.640211640211646,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07462962962962971,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12642857142857133,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.62029569892473,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}