Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk
Brisbane | Hard | Quarterfinals
09 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mirra Andreeva
Mirra …: 74,6% Marta …: 25,4%
¿Por qué Mirra Andreeva?
UTR 12,64 vs 12,61 (+0,13) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mirra … Marta … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,75 69,4%
Gamdom 1,75 2,13 57,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,34 3,93 74,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Mirra …: +8,9% Marta …: -8,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mirra Andreeva
Ranking #7
UTR Rating 12,64 Pro
UTR Ranking #10
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 24/32 = 75,0%
Marta Kostyuk
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 12,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #14
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 22/35 = 62,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 17,0000
rank_ratio 2,8889
log_rank_ratio 1,0609
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 2466,0000
best_rank_diff 11,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 12,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,6838
surface_matches_ratio 0,9143
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 75,0000
surface_wr_p2 62,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 72,2222
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,5385
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 35,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,9824
first_serve_won_diff -0,4857
second_serve_won_diff 2,5486
bp_saved_diff -6,0257
bp_converted_diff 3,6971
aces_per_match_diff 0,2304
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -11,5010
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7446
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7569
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 8,6550
serve_consistency_p2 10,9351
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 12,8820
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2330
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1456
elite_surface_amplifier 24,2857
UTR
utr_diff 0,1300
utr_p1 0,5482
utr_p2 0,5329
utr_advantage 1,0322
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21966
API ID 15302216
Gamdom ID 564716
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21966,
    "api_id": 15302216,
    "gamdom_id": 564716,
    "player1": "Mirra Andreeva",
    "player2": "Marta Kostyuk",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-09T08:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.75,
      "p2": 2.13
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.77,
      "p2": 2.04
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7458,
    "prob_p2": 0.2542,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7458,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 7,
      "utr_singles": 12.64,
      "utr_ranking": 10,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 12.61,
      "utr_ranking": 14,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.64,
      "ranking": 10,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.61,
      "ranking": 14,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.548235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.5329411764705881,
    "utr_diff": 0.13000000000000078,
    "rank_ratio": 2.888888888888889,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": 2466,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -6.025714285714287,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 75.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.857142857142854,
    "utr_advantage": 1.032155617308462,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 11,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.0608719606852626,
    "rank_advantage": 17,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 12.142857142857146,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.6971428571428575,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 35,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.982428571428585,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7445652173913043,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7568627450980392,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.2303571428571427,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.4857142857142662,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.654974791903266,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.93509211749096,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 12.882016665463906,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 72.22222222222221,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.53846153846154,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.548571428571428,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9142857142857143,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -11.50099999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 24.285714285714292,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.23299999999999998,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14557142857142857,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.683760683760674,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}