Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Brisbane | Hard | Semifinals
10 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 88,5% Karolina …: 11,5%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,57 (+0,35) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Karolina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,50 83,3%
Gamdom 1,21 4,70 82,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,13 8,69 88,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: +9,5% Karolina …: -9,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Karolina Muchova
Ranking #19
UTR Rating 12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #18
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 24/37 = 64,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 19,0000
rank_ratio 20,0000
log_rank_ratio 2,9957
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 8602,0000
best_rank_diff 7,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 20,8494
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 19,1941
surface_matches_ratio 1,1351
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 64,8649
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,4146
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 37,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,2732
first_serve_won_diff 2,1179
second_serve_won_diff 2,4517
bp_saved_diff 3,9768
bp_converted_diff 9,6228
aces_per_match_diff -0,2606
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0982
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 5,3953
serve_consistency_p2 8,3472
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 62,4593
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3381
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1676
elite_surface_amplifier 20,8494
UTR
utr_diff 0,3500
utr_p1 0,5788
utr_p2 0,5376
utr_advantage 2,7462
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22009
API ID 15302184
Gamdom ID 564711
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22009,
    "api_id": 15302184,
    "gamdom_id": 564711,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Karolina Muchova",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-10T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.21,
      "p2": 4.7
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.21,
      "p2": 4.29
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8849,
    "prob_p2": 0.1151,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8849,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 19,
      "utr_singles": 12.57,
      "utr_ranking": 18,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.57,
      "ranking": 18,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5788235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.5376470588235295,
    "utr_diff": 0.34999999999999964,
    "rank_ratio": 20.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 8602,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.976769626769631,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.86486486486487,
    "utr_advantage": 2.746174970576694,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 7,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.995732273553991,
    "rank_advantage": 19,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 20.849420849420838,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.622844272844269,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 37,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.2732303732303691,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.098159509202454,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.2606177606177611,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.117889317889322,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.395282555874986,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.347174690097411,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 62.45928292351947,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.41463414634146,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.4517374517374506,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.135135135135135,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 20.849420849420838,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3381428571428571,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1676486486486487,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 19.194061505832444,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}