Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Brisbane | Hard | Semifinals
10 Ene 2026, 05:00
10 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 88,5%
Karolina …: 11,5%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,57
(+0,35)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Karolina … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,20 | 4,50 | 83,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,21 | 4,70 | 82,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,13 | 8,69 | 88,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: +9,5%
Karolina …: -9,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Karolina Muchova
Ranking
#19
UTR Rating
12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#18
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
24/37 = 64,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 19,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 20,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,9957 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 8602,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 7,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 20,8494 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 19,1941 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,1351 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,8649 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,4146 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,2732 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,1179 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,4517 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,9768 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 9,6228 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,2606 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0982 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,3953 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,3472 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 62,4593 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3381 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1676 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 20,8494 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5376 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,7462 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22009
API ID
15302184
Gamdom ID
564711
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22009,
"api_id": 15302184,
"gamdom_id": 564711,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Karolina Muchova",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-10T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.2,
"p2": 4.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.21,
"p2": 4.7
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.21,
"p2": 4.29
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8849,
"prob_p2": 0.1151,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8849,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 19,
"utr_singles": 12.57,
"utr_ranking": 18,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.97,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.57,
"ranking": 18,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5788235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.5376470588235295,
"utr_diff": 0.34999999999999964,
"rank_ratio": 20.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 8602,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.976769626769631,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.86486486486487,
"utr_advantage": 2.746174970576694,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 7,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.995732273553991,
"rank_advantage": 19,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 20.849420849420838,
"bp_converted_diff": 9.622844272844269,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 37,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.2732303732303691,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.098159509202454,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.2606177606177611,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.117889317889322,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.395282555874986,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.347174690097411,
"surface_rank_synergy": 62.45928292351947,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.41463414634146,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.4517374517374506,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.135135135135135,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 20.849420849420838,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3381428571428571,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1676486486486487,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 19.194061505832444,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
},
"feature_importance": {}
}