Shintaro Mochizuki vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Auckland | Hard |
10 Ene 2026, 02:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Shintaro Mochizuki
Shintaro …: 80,3% Juan …: 19,7%
¿Por qué Shintaro Mochizuki?
UTR 14,58 vs 14,67 (-0,06) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Shintaro … Juan … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,95 1,80 51,3%
Gamdom 1,61 2,19 62,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,24 5,09 80,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Shintaro …: +32,3% Juan …: -32,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Shintaro Mochizuki
Ranking #112
UTR Rating 14,58 Pro
UTR Ranking #150
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 26/43 = 60,5%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Ranking #87
UTR Rating 14,67 Pro
UTR Ranking #134
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 4/12 = 33,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -25,0000
rank_ratio 0,7727
log_rank_ratio -0,2578
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -153,0000
best_rank_diff -21,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 27,1318
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 16,1144
surface_matches_ratio 3,5833
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,4651
surface_wr_p2 33,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 59,5745
surface_wr_p2_stable 37,5000
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 12,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2093
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,4600
combined_confidence 0,7300
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,5303
first_serve_won_diff -3,1535
second_serve_won_diff -4,8581
bp_saved_diff 6,8884
bp_converted_diff 5,7744
aces_per_match_diff -0,2481
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 8,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff -12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -7,4700
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 99,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7342
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2857
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 10,0711
serve_consistency_p2 8,1543
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -6,9954
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1297
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1917
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0600
utr_p1 0,7788
utr_p2 0,7859
utr_advantage -0,4096
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22012
API ID 15335386
Gamdom ID 583764
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22012,
    "api_id": 15335386,
    "gamdom_id": 583764,
    "player1": "Shintaro Mochizuki",
    "player2": "Juan Manuel Cerundolo",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-09T22:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.95,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.61,
      "p2": 2.19
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.63,
      "p2": 2.24
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8034,
    "prob_p2": 0.1966,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8034,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 112,
      "utr_singles": 14.58,
      "utr_ranking": 150,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.46511627906976,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 87,
      "utr_singles": 14.67,
      "utr_ranking": 134,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.58,
      "ranking": 150,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.67,
      "ranking": 134,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7788235294117646,
    "utr_p2": 0.7858823529411765,
    "utr_diff": -0.0600000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7727272727272727,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 8.0,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": -153,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.888372093023264,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -12.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.46,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.46511627906976,
    "surface_wr_p2": 33.33333333333333,
    "utr_advantage": -0.40955631399317755,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -21,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.2578291093020998,
    "rank_advantage": -25,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2857142857142857,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 27.131782945736433,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.774418604651167,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 12,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.530310077519367,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7341772151898734,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.24806201550387597,
    "combined_confidence": 0.73,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.1534883720930083,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.20930232558139536,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.071141756038053,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.154320235033744,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -6.995363430677125,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 59.57446808510638,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 37.5,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -4.858139534883712,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.5833333333333335,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -7.470000000000006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 99,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12965116279069766,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.19166666666666676,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 16.11436170212766,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}