Shintaro Mochizuki vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Auckland | Hard |
10 Ene 2026, 02:05
10 Ene 2026, 02:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Shintaro Mochizuki
Shintaro …: 80,3%
Juan …: 19,7%
¿Por qué Shintaro Mochizuki?
UTR 14,58 vs 14,67
(-0,06)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Shintaro … | Juan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,95 | 1,80 | 51,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,61 | 2,19 | 62,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,24 | 5,09 | 80,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Shintaro …: +32,3%
Juan …: -32,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Shintaro Mochizuki
Ranking
#112
UTR Rating
14,58 Pro
UTR Ranking
#150
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
26/43 = 60,5%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Ranking
#87
UTR Rating
14,67 Pro
UTR Ranking
#134
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
4/12 = 33,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -25,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7727 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2578 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -153,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -21,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 27,1318 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 16,1144 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,5833 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,4651 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 59,5745 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 37,5000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 12,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2093 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4600 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7300 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -3,5303 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,1535 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -4,8581 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 6,8884 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,7744 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,2481 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 20,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -12,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -7,4700 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 99,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7342 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2857 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,0711 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,1543 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -6,9954 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1297 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1917 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7859 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,4096 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22012
API ID
15335386
Gamdom ID
583764
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22012,
"api_id": 15335386,
"gamdom_id": 583764,
"player1": "Shintaro Mochizuki",
"player2": "Juan Manuel Cerundolo",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-09T22:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.95,
"p2": 1.8
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.61,
"p2": 2.19
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.63,
"p2": 2.24
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8034,
"prob_p2": 0.1966,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8034,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 112,
"utr_singles": 14.58,
"utr_ranking": 150,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.46511627906976,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 87,
"utr_singles": 14.67,
"utr_ranking": 134,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 12,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.58,
"ranking": 150,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.67,
"ranking": 134,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7788235294117646,
"utr_p2": 0.7858823529411765,
"utr_diff": -0.0600000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 0.7727272727272727,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 8.0,
"momentum_p2": 20.0,
"points_diff": -153,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.888372093023264,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -12.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.46,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.46511627906976,
"surface_wr_p2": 33.33333333333333,
"utr_advantage": -0.40955631399317755,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -21,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.2578291093020998,
"rank_advantage": -25,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2857142857142857,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 27.131782945736433,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.774418604651167,
"p1_surface_matches": 43,
"p2_surface_matches": 12,
"serve_quality_diff": -3.530310077519367,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7341772151898734,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.24806201550387597,
"combined_confidence": 0.73,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.1534883720930083,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.20930232558139536,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.071141756038053,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.154320235033744,
"surface_rank_synergy": -6.995363430677125,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 59.57446808510638,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 37.5,
"second_serve_won_diff": -4.858139534883712,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.5833333333333335,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -7.470000000000006,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 99,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12965116279069766,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.19166666666666676,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 16.11436170212766,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}