Adrian Mannarino vs Pablo Carreño Busta
Auckland | Hard |
10 Ene 2026, 03:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Pablo Carreño Busta
Adrian …: 27,3% Pablo …: 72,7%
¿Por qué Pablo Carreño Busta?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Adrian … Pablo … Prob Impl. P1
IA Fair Odds 3,66 1,38 27,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Adrian Mannarino
Ranking #69
UTR Rating 15,37 Pro
UTR Ranking #41
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 15/36 = 41,7%
Pablo Carreño Busta
Ranking #94
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 26/38 = 68,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 24,0000
rank_ratio 1,3529
log_rank_ratio 0,3023
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 161,0000
best_rank_diff -7,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -26,7544
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -24,1667
surface_matches_ratio 0,9474
surface_tournaments_won_diff -3,0000
surface_wr_p1 41,6667
surface_wr_p2 68,4211
surface_wr_p1_stable 42,5000
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 36,0000
p2_surface_matches 38,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1667
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,1078
first_serve_won_diff -0,9868
second_serve_won_diff -0,0816
bp_saved_diff 1,6175
bp_converted_diff 1,0289
aces_per_match_diff 1,3129
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -52,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -46,5550
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7532
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8571
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0909
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 8,3485
serve_consistency_p2 7,0766
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -8,0873
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1073
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2082
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8882
utr_p2 0,8882
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22013
API ID 15335391
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status cancelled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22013,
    "api_id": 15335391,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Adrian Mannarino",
    "player2": "Pablo Carre\u00f1o Busta",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-09T23:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "cancelled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.02,
      "p2": 1.75
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2733,
    "prob_p2": 0.7267,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7267,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 69,
      "utr_singles": 15.37,
      "utr_ranking": 41,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 94,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.37,
      "ranking": 41,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8882352941176471,
    "utr_p2": 0.8882352941176471,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.3529411764705883,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": 161,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.6175438596491318,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -52.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 41.66666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p2": 68.42105263157895,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -7,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.3022808718729337,
    "rank_advantage": 24,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.09090909090909091,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -26.754385964912274,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.0289473684210577,
    "p1_surface_matches": 36,
    "p2_surface_matches": 38,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.107836257309941,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7531645569620253,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8571428571428571,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.3128654970760234,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.9868421052631646,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.16666666666666666,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.348491899892428,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.076619813918948,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -8.087339115898661,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.5,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.08157894736842053,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9473684210526315,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -46.55500000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.10733333333333328,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2082105263157895,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -24.166666666666657,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}