Mattia Bellucci vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Auckland | Hard |
10 Ene 2026, 04:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mattia Bellucci
Mattia …: 62,3% Roberto …: 37,7%
¿Por qué Mattia Bellucci?
UTR 14,75 vs 15,32 (-0,63) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mattia … Roberto … Prob Impl. P1
Gamdom 1,65 2,10 60,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,61 2,65 62,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mattia Bellucci
Ranking #76
UTR Rating 14,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #122
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 12/29 = 41,4%
Roberto Bautista Agut
Ranking #91
UTR Rating 15,32 Pro
UTR Ranking #47
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 4/14 = 28,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 17,0000
rank_ratio 1,2329
log_rank_ratio 0,2094
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 88,0000
best_rank_diff -54,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 12,8079
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 6,6061
surface_matches_ratio 2,0714
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 41,3793
surface_wr_p2 28,5714
surface_wr_p1_stable 42,4242
surface_wr_p2_stable 33,3333
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 14,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1724
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 0,4867
combined_confidence 0,7267
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,0325
first_serve_won_diff 1,9653
second_serve_won_diff 3,8936
bp_saved_diff 2,7404
bp_converted_diff 2,2433
aces_per_match_diff 2,4409
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 22,0000
momentum_diff -22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -17,6640
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 136,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5059
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5672
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3750
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,2887
serve_consistency_p2 8,8405
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,6813
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1032
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1973
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,6300
utr_p1 0,8012
utr_p2 0,8753
utr_advantage -4,1653
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22016
API ID 15335387
Gamdom ID 583768
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status cancelled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22016,
    "api_id": 15335387,
    "gamdom_id": 583768,
    "player1": "Mattia Bellucci",
    "player2": "Roberto Bautista Agut",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-10T00:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "cancelled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.65,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.68,
      "p2": 2.14
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6226,
    "prob_p2": 0.3774,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6226,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 76,
      "utr_singles": 14.75,
      "utr_ranking": 122,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.37931034482759,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 91,
      "utr_singles": 15.32,
      "utr_ranking": 47,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 28.57142857142857,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.75,
      "ranking": 122,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.32,
      "ranking": 47,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8011764705882354,
    "utr_p2": 0.8752941176470588,
    "utr_diff": -0.629999999999999,
    "rank_ratio": 1.2328767123287672,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 22.0,
    "points_diff": 88,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.7403940886699587,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -22.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 41.37931034482759,
    "surface_wr_p2": 28.57142857142857,
    "utr_advantage": -4.165289256198341,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -54,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.20935022918187396,
    "rank_advantage": 17,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 12.807881773399018,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.2433497536945843,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 14,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.0324876847290625,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5058823529411764,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5671641791044776,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.440886699507389,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7266666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.9652709359605893,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.1724137931034483,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.288719838507864,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.840537111240176,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.681332984595431,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.42424242424242,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.33333333333333,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.8935960591133068,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.0714285714285716,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -17.664,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 136,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.10320689655172416,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.1972857142857143,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.606060606060608,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}