Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Semifinals
10 Ene 2026, 11:30
10 Ene 2026, 11:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 52,7%
Andrey …: 47,3%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
UTR 15,77 vs 15,53
(+0,26)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Andrey … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,91 | 1,91 | 52,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,84 | 1,97 | 54,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,90 | 2,12 | 52,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: +2,7%
Andrey …: -2,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/37 = 59,5%
Andrey Rublev
Ranking
#15
UTR Rating
15,53 Pro
UTR Ranking
#27
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
22/39 = 56,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 9,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,2857 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,8267 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1480,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -1,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 3,0492 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 2,7226 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9487 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 59,4595 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,4103 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,5366 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,8140 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 39,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1892 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -6,9313 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,0160 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,3512 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,9924 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,5015 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,1143 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -2,2500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0545 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1879 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4706 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,3170 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,6824 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 2,5207 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0856 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0731 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 3,0492 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9247 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8941 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,6529 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22031
API ID
15298426
Gamdom ID
563180
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22031,
"api_id": 15298426,
"gamdom_id": 563180,
"player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
"player2": "Andrey Rublev",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-10T07:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.9100000000000001,
"p2": 1.9100000000000001
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.84,
"p2": 1.97
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.84,
"p2": 1.95
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5272,
"prob_p2": 0.4728,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5272,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 15.77,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 15,
"utr_singles": 15.53,
"utr_ranking": 27,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.41025641025641,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 39,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.77,
"ranking": 9,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.53,
"ranking": 27,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.9247058823529412,
"utr_p2": 0.8941176470588235,
"utr_diff": 0.2599999999999998,
"rank_ratio": 2.2857142857142856,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": 1480,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.9923769923769967,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -2.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.41025641025641,
"utr_advantage": 1.6528925619834698,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -1,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.8266785731844679,
"rank_advantage": 9,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.47058823529411764,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 3.049203049203051,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.5015246015245935,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 39,
"serve_quality_diff": -6.931330561330569,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1879194630872483,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.114345114345115,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.01600831600831,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.316968149617466,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.682423843328388,
"surface_rank_synergy": 2.520710826064907,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.81395348837209,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.351212751212756,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9487179487179487,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -2.25,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 3.049203049203051,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08559459459459462,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.0731025641025641,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.722631877481561,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}