Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Semifinals
10 Ene 2026, 11:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 52,7% Andrey …: 47,3%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
UTR 15,77 vs 15,53 (+0,26) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Andrey … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,91 52,4%
Gamdom 1,84 1,97 54,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,90 2,12 52,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: +2,7% Andrey …: -2,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/37 = 59,5%
Andrey Rublev
Ranking #15
UTR Rating 15,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #27
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 22/39 = 56,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 9,0000
rank_ratio 2,2857
log_rank_ratio 0,8267
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1480,0000
best_rank_diff -1,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,0492
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 2,7226
surface_matches_ratio 0,9487
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 59,4595
surface_wr_p2 56,4103
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,5366
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,8140
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 39,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1892
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,9313
first_serve_won_diff -4,0160
second_serve_won_diff 4,3512
bp_saved_diff -0,9924
bp_converted_diff -0,5015
aces_per_match_diff -3,1143
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 78,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -2,2500
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0545
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1879
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4706
serve_consistency_p1 6,3170
serve_consistency_p2 8,6824
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,5207
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0856
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0731
elite_surface_amplifier 3,0492
UTR
utr_diff 0,2600
utr_p1 0,9247
utr_p2 0,8941
utr_advantage 1,6529
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22031
API ID 15298426
Gamdom ID 563180
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22031,
    "api_id": 15298426,
    "gamdom_id": 563180,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
    "player2": "Andrey Rublev",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-10T07:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9100000000000001,
      "p2": 1.9100000000000001
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.84,
      "p2": 1.97
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.84,
      "p2": 1.95
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5272,
    "prob_p2": 0.4728,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5272,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 15.77,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 15,
      "utr_singles": 15.53,
      "utr_ranking": 27,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.41025641025641,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 39,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.77,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.53,
      "ranking": 27,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9247058823529412,
    "utr_p2": 0.8941176470588235,
    "utr_diff": 0.2599999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 2.2857142857142856,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 1480,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.9923769923769967,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.41025641025641,
    "utr_advantage": 1.6528925619834698,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -1,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.8266785731844679,
    "rank_advantage": 9,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.47058823529411764,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.049203049203051,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.5015246015245935,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 39,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.931330561330569,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1879194630872483,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.114345114345115,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.01600831600831,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.316968149617466,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.682423843328388,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.520710826064907,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.81395348837209,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.351212751212756,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9487179487179487,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -2.25,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 3.049203049203051,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08559459459459462,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.0731025641025641,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.722631877481561,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}