Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk
Brisbane | Hard | Semifinals
10 Ene 2026, 09:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jessica Pegula
Jessica …: 67,0% Marta …: 33,0%
¿Por qué Jessica Pegula?
UTR 12,75 vs 12,61 (+0,26) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jessica … Marta … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,73 2,10 57,8%
Gamdom 1,68 2,24 59,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,49 3,03 67,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Jessica …: +12,1% Marta …: -12,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jessica Pegula
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 34/49 = 69,4%
Marta Kostyuk
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 12,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #14
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 22/35 = 62,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 20,0000
rank_ratio 4,3333
log_rank_ratio 1,4663
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 3924,0000
best_rank_diff 13,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 6,5306
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 6,3861
surface_matches_ratio 1,4000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 69,3878
surface_wr_p2 62,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 67,9245
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,5385
p1_surface_matches 49,0000
p2_surface_matches 35,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3878
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,9136
first_serve_won_diff -1,1714
second_serve_won_diff 0,9343
bp_saved_diff -5,1971
bp_converted_diff 1,5114
aces_per_match_diff -0,8041
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 2,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,4000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,2132
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7569
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3571
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 8,1417
serve_consistency_p2 9,2249
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 9,5761
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1739
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1486
elite_surface_amplifier 13,0612
UTR
utr_diff 0,2600
utr_p1 0,5635
utr_p2 0,5329
utr_advantage 2,0537
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22032
API ID 15302202
Gamdom ID 564708
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22032,
    "api_id": 15302202,
    "gamdom_id": 564708,
    "player1": "Jessica Pegula",
    "player2": "Marta Kostyuk",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-10T05:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.73,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.68,
      "p2": 2.24
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.66,
      "p2": 2.19
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6696,
    "prob_p2": 0.3304,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6696,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 12.75,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 49,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 12.61,
      "utr_ranking": 14,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.75,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.61,
      "ranking": 14,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5635294117647058,
    "utr_p2": 0.5329411764705881,
    "utr_diff": 0.2599999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 4.333333333333333,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 3924,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.19714285714285,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 2,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 69.38775510204081,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.857142857142854,
    "utr_advantage": 2.053712480252763,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 13,
    "h2h_on_surface": 2,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.466337068793427,
    "rank_advantage": 20,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.35714285714285715,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 6.530612244897959,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.5114285714285742,
    "p1_surface_matches": 49,
    "p2_surface_matches": 35,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.9135918367346818,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.213235294117647,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7568627450980392,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.8040816326530615,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.1714285714285495,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3877551020408163,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.141689043160033,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.224911291217945,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 9.576078816610135,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 67.9245283018868,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.53846153846154,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.9342857142857142,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 13.061224489795919,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.17387755102040814,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14857142857142858,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.386066763425255,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}