Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk
Brisbane | Hard | Semifinals
10 Ene 2026, 09:10
10 Ene 2026, 09:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jessica Pegula
Jessica …: 67,0%
Marta …: 33,0%
¿Por qué Jessica Pegula?
UTR 12,75 vs 12,61
(+0,26)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jessica … | Marta … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,73 | 2,10 | 57,8% |
| Gamdom | 1,68 | 2,24 | 59,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,49 | 3,03 | 67,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jessica …: +12,1%
Marta …: -12,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jessica Pegula
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
34/49 = 69,4%
Marta Kostyuk
Ranking
#20
UTR Rating
12,61 Pro
UTR Ranking
#14
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
22/35 = 62,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 20,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,3333 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,4663 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 3924,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 13,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 6,5306 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 6,3861 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 69,3878 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 62,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 67,9245 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 61,5385 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 49,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3878 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -1,9136 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,1714 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,9343 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -5,1971 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,5114 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,8041 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,2132 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7569 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3571 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,1417 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,2249 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 9,5761 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1739 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1486 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 13,0612 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5635 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5329 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,0537 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22032
API ID
15302202
Gamdom ID
564708
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22032,
"api_id": 15302202,
"gamdom_id": 564708,
"player1": "Jessica Pegula",
"player2": "Marta Kostyuk",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-10T05:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.73,
"p2": 2.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.68,
"p2": 2.24
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.66,
"p2": 2.19
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6696,
"prob_p2": 0.3304,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6696,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 12.75,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
"wr_surface_wins": 34,
"wr_surface_total": 49,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 20,
"utr_singles": 12.61,
"utr_ranking": 14,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.75,
"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.61,
"ranking": 14,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5635294117647058,
"utr_p2": 0.5329411764705881,
"utr_diff": 0.2599999999999998,
"rank_ratio": 4.333333333333333,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 3924,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -5.19714285714285,
"h2h_wins_diff": 2,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 69.38775510204081,
"surface_wr_p2": 62.857142857142854,
"utr_advantage": 2.053712480252763,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 13,
"h2h_on_surface": 2,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.466337068793427,
"rank_advantage": 20,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.35714285714285715,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 6.530612244897959,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.5114285714285742,
"p1_surface_matches": 49,
"p2_surface_matches": 35,
"serve_quality_diff": -1.9135918367346818,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.213235294117647,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7568627450980392,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.8040816326530615,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.1714285714285495,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3877551020408163,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.141689043160033,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.224911291217945,
"surface_rank_synergy": 9.576078816610135,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 67.9245283018868,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.53846153846154,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.9342857142857142,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 13.061224489795919,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.17387755102040814,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14857142857142858,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.386066763425255,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}