Ava Beck vs Simona Waltert
Hobart | Hard |
10 Ene 2026, 11:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Simona Waltert
Ava …: 8,3% Simona …: 91,7%
¿Por qué Simona Waltert?
UTR 9,76 vs 12,15 (-2,48) — Ventaja clara
Ava …
W21-L18
54% WR
vs UTR 9,4
L1
Simona …
Sin datos
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (39%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ava … Simona … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 19,00 1,02 5,3%
Gamdom 11,00 1,01 9,1%
IA Fair Odds 12,02 1,09 8,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Ava …: +3,2% Simona …: -3,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ava Beck
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 9,76 Junior
UTR Ranking #319
Forma L5 0% (1p)
Forma L10 0% (1p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Simona Waltert
Ranking #87
UTR Rating 12,15 Pro
UTR Ranking #66
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 8/12 = 66,7%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Ava Beck
Record 2025 21W - 18L (54%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 9,4
Últimos 5:
L W L W W
Simona Waltert
Sin datos UTR v4
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -412,0000
rank_ratio 0,1760
log_rank_ratio -1,7373
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -817,0000
best_rank_diff -414,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -66,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -22,6200
surface_matches_ratio 0,0833
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 4,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 62,5000
p1_surface_matches 1,0000
p2_surface_matches 12,0000
p1_surface_dominance -1,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3133
p2_confidence 0,4600
combined_confidence 0,3867
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -31,8033
first_serve_won_diff -33,5167
second_serve_won_diff -23,4833
bp_saved_diff -39,6667
bp_converted_diff -39,8500
aces_per_match_diff -4,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -52,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -40,8200
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 370,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 10,0000
serve_consistency_p2 7,3101
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 115,8181
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0880
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2453
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -2,4800
utr_p1 0,2047
utr_p2 0,4965
utr_advantage -22,5865
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22054
API ID 15336319
Gamdom ID 584522
Torneo Hobart
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22054,
    "api_id": 15336319,
    "gamdom_id": 584522,
    "player1": "Ava Beck",
    "player2": "Simona Waltert",
    "tournament": "Hobart",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-10T07:25:32+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 19.0,
      "p2": 1.02
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 11.0,
      "p2": 1.01
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 15.17,
      "p2": 1.02
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.0832,
    "prob_p2": 0.9168,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.9168,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 9.76,
      "utr_ranking": 319,
      "utr_division": "Junior",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 21,
      "utr_v4_losses": 18,
      "utr_v4_wr": 53.84615384615385,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.37,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.62,
          "opponent_name": "Ya Yi Yang"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.68,
          "opponent_name": "Stefani Webb"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.21,
          "opponent_name": "Laquisa Khan"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 7.95,
          "opponent_name": "Sara Mickoska"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.07,
          "opponent_name": "Nanari Katsumi"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:55:33.853264+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 87,
      "utr_singles": 12.15,
      "utr_ranking": 66,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 9.76,
      "ranking": 319,
      "division": "Junior",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.15,
      "ranking": 66,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.2047058823529412,
    "utr_p2": 0.4964705882352942,
    "utr_diff": -2.4800000000000004,
    "rank_ratio": 0.176,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": -817,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -39.66666666666667,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -52.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.46,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": -22.586520947176687,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -414,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.7372712839439852,
    "rank_advantage": -412,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -66.66666666666666,
    "bp_converted_diff": -39.85,
    "p1_surface_matches": 1,
    "p2_surface_matches": 12,
    "serve_quality_diff": -31.80333333333333,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -4.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.38666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -33.516666666666666,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.0,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.310119292262481,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 115.81808559626566,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 4.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.5,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -23.48333333333333,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.08333333333333333,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -40.82000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 370,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.08799999999999997,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.24533333333333351,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -22.62,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}