Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen
Brisbane | Hard | Semifinals
10 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 80,0% Alex …: 20,0%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 15,12 (+0,74) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniil … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,30 3,50 76,9%
Gamdom 1,26 3,90 79,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,25 5,01 80,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniil …: +7,1% Alex …: -7,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #8
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 30/46 = 65,2%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking #38
UTR Rating 15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking #87
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 24,0000
rank_ratio 2,8462
log_rank_ratio 1,0460
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1410,0000
best_rank_diff 29,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 15,2174
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 14,0000
surface_matches_ratio 1,3529
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,2174
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 64,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 46,0000
p2_surface_matches 34,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 14,6761
first_serve_won_diff 9,3721
second_serve_won_diff 5,3376
bp_saved_diff 3,2231
bp_converted_diff 3,2486
aces_per_match_diff 4,1944
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,4000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8483
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9762
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5238
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7273
serve_consistency_p1 10,6268
serve_consistency_p2 10,6520
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 15,9169
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1282
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0240
elite_surface_amplifier 15,2174
UTR
utr_diff 0,7400
utr_p1 0,9188
utr_p2 0,8318
utr_advantage 4,7927
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22068
API ID 15298540
Gamdom ID 563249
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22068,
    "api_id": 15298540,
    "gamdom_id": 563249,
    "player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
    "player2": "Alex Michelsen",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-10T08:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.26,
      "p2": 3.9
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.29,
      "p2": 3.46
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8002,
    "prob_p2": 0.1998,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8002,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 15.81,
      "utr_ranking": 8,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 38,
      "utr_singles": 15.12,
      "utr_ranking": 87,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 34,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.81,
      "ranking": 8,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.12,
      "ranking": 87,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9188235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.7400000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 2.8461538461538463,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 1410,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.223145780051155,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 2,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 4.792746113989638,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 29,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.0459685551826878,
    "rank_advantage": 24,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 15.217391304347828,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.248593350383622,
    "p1_surface_matches": 46,
    "p2_surface_matches": 34,
    "serve_quality_diff": 14.67608695652173,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.194373401534527,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 9.372122762148337,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.626816226620543,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.651990505399068,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 15.916912796258295,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 5.337595907928382,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.3529411764705883,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 15.217391304347828,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12817391304347825,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02400000000000002,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 14.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}