Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen
Brisbane | Hard | Semifinals
10 Ene 2026, 12:30
10 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 80,0%
Alex …: 20,0%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 15,12
(+0,74)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daniil … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,30 | 3,50 | 76,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,26 | 3,90 | 79,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,25 | 5,01 | 80,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daniil …: +7,1%
Alex …: -7,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking
#12
UTR Rating
15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking
#8
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
30/46 = 65,2%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking
#38
UTR Rating
15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking
#87
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 24,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,8462 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,0460 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1410,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 29,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 15,2174 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 14,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3529 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 65,2174 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 64,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 34,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3043 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 14,6761 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 9,3721 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 5,3376 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,2231 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,2486 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,1944 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8483 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9762 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5238 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7273 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,6268 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,6520 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 15,9169 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1282 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0240 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 15,2174 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,7400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8318 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,7927 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22068
API ID
15298540
Gamdom ID
563249
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22068,
"api_id": 15298540,
"gamdom_id": 563249,
"player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
"player2": "Alex Michelsen",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-10T08:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.26,
"p2": 3.9
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.29,
"p2": 3.46
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8002,
"prob_p2": 0.1998,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8002,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 12,
"utr_singles": 15.81,
"utr_ranking": 8,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
"wr_surface_wins": 30,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 38,
"utr_singles": 15.12,
"utr_ranking": 87,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 34,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.81,
"ranking": 8,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.12,
"ranking": 87,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.9188235294117648,
"utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.7400000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 2.8461538461538463,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 1410,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.223145780051155,
"h2h_wins_diff": 2,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 4.792746113989638,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 29,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.0459685551826878,
"rank_advantage": 24,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 15.217391304347828,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.248593350383622,
"p1_surface_matches": 46,
"p2_surface_matches": 34,
"serve_quality_diff": 14.67608695652173,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.194373401534527,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 9.372122762148337,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.626816226620543,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.651990505399068,
"surface_rank_synergy": 15.916912796258295,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 5.337595907928382,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3529411764705883,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 15.217391304347828,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12817391304347825,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02400000000000002,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 14.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}