Marcos Giron vs Alexander Bublik
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Semifinals
10 Ene 2026, 14:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexander Bublik
Marcos …: 26,7% Alexander …: 73,3%
¿Por qué Alexander Bublik?
UTR 15,30 vs 15,95 (-0,63) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Marcos … Alexander … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,40 1,33 29,4%
Gamdom 3,50 1,31 28,6%
IA Fair Odds 3,75 1,36 26,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Marcos …: -1,4% Alexander …: +1,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marcos Giron
Ranking #51
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #54
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 12/28 = 42,9%
Alexander Bublik
Ranking #10
UTR Rating 15,95 Pro
UTR Ranking #4
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 20/36 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -53,0000
rank_ratio 0,1719
log_rank_ratio -1,7610
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -2000,0000
best_rank_diff -26,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -12,6984
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -10,8750
surface_matches_ratio 0,7778
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 42,8571
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 43,7500
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,0000
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 36,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -17,0230
first_serve_won_diff -7,2968
second_serve_won_diff 0,5238
bp_saved_diff -11,4373
bp_converted_diff -2,3468
aces_per_match_diff -6,7659
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 13,5500
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9215
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9655
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4375
serve_consistency_p1 3,1772
serve_consistency_p2 8,7316
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 22,3617
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0184
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0026
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,6300
utr_p1 0,8647
utr_p2 0,9388
utr_advantage -4,0217
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22069
API ID 15298414
Gamdom ID 563187
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22069,
    "api_id": 15298414,
    "gamdom_id": 563187,
    "player1": "Marcos Giron",
    "player2": "Alexander Bublik",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-10T10:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.33
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.5,
      "p2": 1.31
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.35,
      "p2": 1.29
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2668,
    "prob_p2": 0.7332,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7332,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 51,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 54,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 10,
      "utr_singles": 15.95,
      "utr_ranking": 4,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 54,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.95,
      "ranking": 4,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8647058823529411,
    "utr_p2": 0.9388235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.6300000000000008,
    "rank_ratio": 0.171875,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": -2000,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -11.437301587301597,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": -4.021704436642201,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -26,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.7609878105613013,
    "rank_advantage": -53,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -12.698412698412703,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.346825396825402,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 36,
    "serve_quality_diff": -17.023015873015865,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9214659685863874,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9655172413793104,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -6.765873015873016,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.2968253968253975,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.1772454019231215,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.731588741137607,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 22.36174997538161,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.75,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.00000000000001,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.5238095238095326,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 13.549999999999983,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.018428571428571405,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.002555555555555533,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -10.875000000000007,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}