Marcos Giron vs Alexander Bublik
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Semifinals
10 Ene 2026, 14:35
10 Ene 2026, 14:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexander Bublik
Marcos …: 26,7%
Alexander …: 73,3%
¿Por qué Alexander Bublik?
UTR 15,30 vs 15,95
(-0,63)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Marcos … | Alexander … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,40 | 1,33 | 29,4% |
| Gamdom | 3,50 | 1,31 | 28,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,75 | 1,36 | 26,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Marcos …: -1,4%
Alexander …: +1,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marcos Giron
Ranking
#51
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
12/28 = 42,9%
Alexander Bublik
Ranking
#10
UTR Rating
15,95 Pro
UTR Ranking
#4
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
20/36 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -53,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1719 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,7610 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2000,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -26,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -12,6984 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -10,8750 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7778 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 43,7500 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 36,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -17,0230 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -7,2968 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,5238 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -11,4373 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,3468 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -6,7659 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 13,5500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9215 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9655 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4375 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,1772 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,7316 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 22,3617 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0184 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0026 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,6300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8647 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9388 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,0217 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22069
API ID
15298414
Gamdom ID
563187
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22069,
"api_id": 15298414,
"gamdom_id": 563187,
"player1": "Marcos Giron",
"player2": "Alexander Bublik",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-10T10:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.33
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.5,
"p2": 1.31
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.35,
"p2": 1.29
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2668,
"prob_p2": 0.7332,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7332,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 51,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 10,
"utr_singles": 15.95,
"utr_ranking": 4,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 36,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.3,
"ranking": 54,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.95,
"ranking": 4,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8647058823529411,
"utr_p2": 0.9388235294117647,
"utr_diff": -0.6300000000000008,
"rank_ratio": 0.171875,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": -2000,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -11.437301587301597,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 20.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
"utr_advantage": -4.021704436642201,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -26,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.7609878105613013,
"rank_advantage": -53,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -12.698412698412703,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.346825396825402,
"p1_surface_matches": 28,
"p2_surface_matches": 36,
"serve_quality_diff": -17.023015873015865,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9214659685863874,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9655172413793104,
"aces_per_match_diff": -6.765873015873016,
"combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -7.2968253968253975,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.1772454019231215,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.731588741137607,
"surface_rank_synergy": 22.36174997538161,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.75,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.00000000000001,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.5238095238095326,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 13.549999999999983,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.018428571428571405,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.002555555555555533,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -10.875000000000007,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}