Maria Penalver Aguilo vs Emma Mazzoni
UTR PTT Stirling Women 01 | Hard | Final
10 Ene 2026, 13:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maria Penalver Aguilo
Maria …: 57,6% Emma …: 42,4%
¿Por qué Maria Penalver Aguilo?
UTR 8,61 vs 8,61 (+0,06) — Niveles similares
Maria …
W24-L22
52% WR
vs UTR 8,4
L2
Emma …
W5-L22
19% WR
vs UTR 9,4
L6
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maria … Emma … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,53 2,38 65,2%
Gamdom 1,40 2,55 71,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,74 2,36 57,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Maria …: -3,2% Emma …: +3,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Penalver Aguilo
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 8,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #1463
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (5p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Emma Mazzoni
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 8,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #1460
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (5p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Maria Penalver Aguilo
Record 2025 24W - 22L (52%)
Racha 2L
UTR Oponentes 8,4
Últimos 5:
L L W L L
Emma Mazzoni
Record 2025 5W - 22L (19%)
Racha 6L
UTR Oponentes 9,4
Últimos 5:
L L L L L
Análisis Momentum
Emma Mazzoni ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 9,4 vs 8,4).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 7,6658
serve_consistency_p2 8,7066
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0600
utr_p1 0,0859
utr_p2 0,0788
utr_advantage 0,6897
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22093
API ID 15338014
Gamdom ID 586101
Torneo UTR PTT Stirling Women 01
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22093,
    "api_id": 15338014,
    "gamdom_id": 586101,
    "player1": "Maria Penalver Aguilo",
    "player2": "Emma Mazzoni",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Stirling Women 01",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2026-01-10T09:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5333333333333332,
      "p2": 2.375
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.55
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.38,
      "p2": 2.99
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5759,
    "prob_p2": 0.4241,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5759,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 8.61,
      "utr_ranking": 1463,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 24,
      "utr_v4_losses": 22,
      "utr_v4_wr": 52.17391304347826,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 8.36,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.23,
          "opponent_name": "Alexa Volkov"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.94,
          "opponent_name": "Laura Boehner"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.43,
          "opponent_name": "Charlotte Pikkaart"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.61,
          "opponent_name": "Anastasiya Kuparev"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 8.0,
          "opponent_name": "Aniela Odrobina"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:36.019708+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 8.61,
      "utr_ranking": 1460,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 5,
      "utr_v4_losses": 22,
      "utr_v4_wr": 18.51851851851852,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 6,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.44,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 8.0,
          "opponent_name": "Yana Tsion Leonova"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Aleksandra Stevanovic"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Ana Vilcek"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Nikola Homolkov\u00e1"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.11,
          "opponent_name": "Demi Tran"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:14.442187+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 8.61,
      "ranking": 1463,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 8.61,
      "ranking": 1460,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.08588235294117652,
    "utr_p2": 0.0788235294117647,
    "utr_diff": 0.0600000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.6896551724137989,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.66579033578201,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.706641436888242,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}