Alejandro Tabilo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Auckland | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 02:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alejandro Tabilo
Alejandro …: 80,6% Camilo …: 19,4%
¿Por qué Alejandro Tabilo?
UTR 15,06 vs 14,77 (+0,34) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alejandro … Camilo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,53 2,50 65,4%
Gamdom 1,41 2,95 70,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,24 5,16 80,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Alejandro …: +18,6% Camilo …: -18,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alejandro Tabilo
Ranking #79
UTR Rating 15,06 Pro
UTR Ranking #85
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 15/28 = 53,6%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ranking #49
UTR Rating 14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #117
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 6/18 = 33,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -33,0000
rank_ratio 0,5926
log_rank_ratio -0,5232
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -311,0000
best_rank_diff 24,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 20,2381
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 12,8504
surface_matches_ratio 1,5556
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,5714
surface_wr_p2 33,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,1250
surface_wr_p2_stable 36,3636
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 18,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0714
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 0,6000
combined_confidence 0,7667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 12,1857
first_serve_won_diff 4,9262
second_serve_won_diff 1,2183
bp_saved_diff 8,5238
bp_converted_diff -16,9667
aces_per_match_diff 4,6786
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 15,2350
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7586
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,1429
serve_consistency_p1 6,0609
serve_consistency_p2 8,7148
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -10,5895
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0687
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1997
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,3400
utr_p1 0,8435
utr_p2 0,8035
utr_advantage 2,2667
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22220
API ID 15340330
Gamdom ID 586886
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22220,
    "api_id": 15340330,
    "gamdom_id": 586886,
    "player1": "Alejandro Tabilo",
    "player2": "Camilo Ugo Carabelli",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T22:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.53,
      "p2": 2.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.41,
      "p2": 2.95
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.91
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8063,
    "prob_p2": 0.1937,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8063,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 79,
      "utr_singles": 15.06,
      "utr_ranking": 85,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.57142857142857,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 49,
      "utr_singles": 14.77,
      "utr_ranking": 117,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.06,
      "ranking": 85,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.77,
      "ranking": 117,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8435294117647059,
    "utr_p2": 0.8035294117647059,
    "utr_diff": 0.33999999999999986,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5925925925925926,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": -311,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 8.523809523809526,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 32.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2": 33.33333333333333,
    "utr_advantage": 2.2666666666666657,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 24,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5232481437645479,
    "rank_advantage": -33,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.14285714285714285,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 20.23809523809524,
    "bp_converted_diff": -16.966666666666676,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 18,
    "serve_quality_diff": 12.185714285714276,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7586206896551724,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.678571428571429,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.926190476190456,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07142857142857142,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.060912454148325,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.714814029894985,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -10.58954576666347,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.125,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 36.36363636363637,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.2182539682539613,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5555555555555556,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 15.235,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06871428571428573,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.19966666666666677,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.850378787878784,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}