Mariano Navone vs Alex Michelsen
Auckland | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex Michelsen
Mariano …: 22,2%
Alex …: 77,8%
¿Por qué Alex Michelsen?
UTR 14,85 vs 15,12
(+0,03)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Mariano … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,75 | 1,44 | 36,4% |
| Gamdom | 3,45 | 1,31 | 29,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,51 | 1,29 | 22,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Mariano …: -12,2%
Alex …: +12,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mariano Navone
Ranking
#74
UTR Rating
14,85 Pro
UTR Ranking
#104
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
5/17 = 29,4%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking
#38
UTR Rating
15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking
#87
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -35,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5139 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,6657 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -540,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 1,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -20,5882 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -13,0556 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 29,4118 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 17,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 34,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,4118 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,0176 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,8235 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,2941 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,6029 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,5529 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,6471 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -62,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -52,8510 | |
| current_streak_diff | -5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7238 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9762 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7273 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,3398 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,6520 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 13,7066 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1709 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0350 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8353 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8318 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,1989 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22225
API ID
15340325
Gamdom ID
586885
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22225,
"api_id": 15340325,
"gamdom_id": 586885,
"player1": "Mariano Navone",
"player2": "Alex Michelsen",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-12T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.75,
"p2": 1.44
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.45,
"p2": 1.31
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.31
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2219,
"prob_p2": 0.7781,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7781,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 74,
"utr_singles": 14.85,
"utr_ranking": 104,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 29.411764705882355,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 17,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 38,
"utr_singles": 15.12,
"utr_ranking": 87,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 34,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.85,
"ranking": 104,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.12,
"ranking": 87,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.02999999999999936,
"rank_ratio": 0.5138888888888888,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -540,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.602941176470587,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -61.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 29.411764705882355,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 0.19887305270135472,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 1,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.665748206371831,
"rank_advantage": -35,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -20.588235294117645,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.5529411764705827,
"p1_surface_matches": 17,
"p2_surface_matches": 34,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.0176470588235347,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7238095238095238,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.6470588235294112,
"combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -5,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.82352941176471,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.4117647058823529,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.33983159409705,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.651990505399068,
"surface_rank_synergy": 13.706580719420048,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.294117647058819,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -52.851,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.17088235294117643,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.03500000000000003,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.055555555555559,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}