Mariano Navone vs Alex Michelsen
Auckland | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex Michelsen
Mariano …: 22,2% Alex …: 77,8%
¿Por qué Alex Michelsen?
UTR 14,85 vs 15,12 (+0,03) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mariano … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,44 36,4%
Gamdom 3,45 1,31 29,0%
IA Fair Odds 4,51 1,29 22,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Mariano …: -12,2% Alex …: +12,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mariano Navone
Ranking #74
UTR Rating 14,85 Pro
UTR Ranking #104
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 5/17 = 29,4%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking #38
UTR Rating 15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking #87
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -35,0000
rank_ratio 0,5139
log_rank_ratio -0,6657
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -540,0000
best_rank_diff 1,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -20,5882
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -13,0556
surface_matches_ratio 0,5000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 29,4118
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 33,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 34,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,4118
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,0176
first_serve_won_diff -2,8235
second_serve_won_diff 2,2941
bp_saved_diff -2,6029
bp_converted_diff 2,5529
aces_per_match_diff -0,6471
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 28,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff -62,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -52,8510
current_streak_diff -5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7238
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9762
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7273
serve_consistency_p1 4,3398
serve_consistency_p2 10,6520
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 13,7066
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1709
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0350
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0300
utr_p1 0,8353
utr_p2 0,8318
utr_advantage 0,1989
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22225
API ID 15340325
Gamdom ID 586885
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22225,
    "api_id": 15340325,
    "gamdom_id": 586885,
    "player1": "Mariano Navone",
    "player2": "Alex Michelsen",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.44
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.45,
      "p2": 1.31
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.31
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2219,
    "prob_p2": 0.7781,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7781,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 74,
      "utr_singles": 14.85,
      "utr_ranking": 104,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 29.411764705882355,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 38,
      "utr_singles": 15.12,
      "utr_ranking": 87,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 34,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.85,
      "ranking": 104,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.12,
      "ranking": 87,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8352941176470587,
    "utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.02999999999999936,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5138888888888888,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -540,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.602941176470587,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -61.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 29.411764705882355,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.19887305270135472,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 1,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.665748206371831,
    "rank_advantage": -35,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -20.588235294117645,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.5529411764705827,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 34,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.0176470588235347,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7238095238095238,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.6470588235294112,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.82352941176471,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.4117647058823529,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.33983159409705,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.651990505399068,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 13.706580719420048,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.294117647058819,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -52.851,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.17088235294117643,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.03500000000000003,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.055555555555559,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}