Reilly Opelka vs Alexei Popyrin
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 08:00
12 Ene 2026, 08:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Reilly Opelka
Reilly …: 79,0%
Alexei …: 21,0%
¿Por qué Reilly Opelka?
UTR 15,11 vs 15,09
(-0,11)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Reilly … | Alexei … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,10 | 1,73 | 47,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,27 | 4,77 | 79,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Reilly …: +33,9%
Alexei …: -33,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Reilly Opelka
Ranking
#63
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
21/35 = 60,0%
Alexei Popyrin
Ranking
#50
UTR Rating
15,09 Pro
UTR Ranking
#82
Forma L5
0% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
7/21 = 33,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -10,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8333 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,1823 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -139,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 26,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 19,5282 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,6667 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,9744 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 36,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 21,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 14,9895 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,0762 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 7,1714 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 7,2810 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 7,1095 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 5,4000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 32,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 22,4340 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0341 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9904 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8889 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,6494 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,3647 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -4,8619 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1100 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1767 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8412 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8541 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,7234 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22240
API ID
15340341
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22240,
"api_id": 15340341,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Reilly Opelka",
"player2": "Alexei Popyrin",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-12T04:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.73
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.98,
"p2": 1.81
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7903,
"prob_p2": 0.2097,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7903,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 50,
"utr_singles": 15.09,
"utr_ranking": 82,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 21,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 82,
"division": "Pro",
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}
},
"features": {
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"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 32.0,
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"points_diff": -139,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 7.280952380952385,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 32.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.7,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 33.33333333333333,
"utr_advantage": -0.7234462347911833,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 2,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.1823215567939546,
"rank_advantage": -10,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8888888888888888,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 26.66666666666667,
"bp_converted_diff": 7.109523809523811,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 21,
"serve_quality_diff": 14.989523809523817,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0340909090909092,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9903846153846154,
"aces_per_match_diff": 5.4,
"combined_confidence": 0.85,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.07619047619049,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.6493816956332195,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.364736182294879,
"surface_rank_synergy": -4.861908181172123,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.97435897435898,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 36.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 7.171428571428564,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.6666666666666667,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 22.434000000000005,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10999999999999999,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.17666666666666675,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 19.52820512820513,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
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"feature_importance": {}
}