Reilly Opelka vs Alexei Popyrin
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 08:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Reilly Opelka
Reilly …: 79,0% Alexei …: 21,0%
¿Por qué Reilly Opelka?
UTR 15,11 vs 15,09 (-0,11) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Reilly … Alexei … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,10 1,73 47,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,27 4,77 79,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Reilly …: +33,9% Alexei …: -33,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Reilly Opelka
Ranking #63
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 21/35 = 60,0%
Alexei Popyrin
Ranking #50
UTR Rating 15,09 Pro
UTR Ranking #82
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 7/21 = 33,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -10,0000
rank_ratio 0,8333
log_rank_ratio -0,1823
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -139,0000
best_rank_diff 2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 26,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 19,5282
surface_matches_ratio 1,6667
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,0000
surface_wr_p2 33,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,9744
surface_wr_p2_stable 36,0000
p1_surface_matches 35,0000
p2_surface_matches 21,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7000
combined_confidence 0,8500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 14,9895
first_serve_won_diff 4,0762
second_serve_won_diff 7,1714
bp_saved_diff 7,2810
bp_converted_diff 7,1095
aces_per_match_diff 5,4000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 32,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 22,4340
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0341
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9904
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8889
serve_consistency_p1 4,6494
serve_consistency_p2 5,3647
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -4,8619
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1100
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1767
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1100
utr_p1 0,8412
utr_p2 0,8541
utr_advantage -0,7234
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22240
API ID 15340341
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22240,
    "api_id": 15340341,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Reilly Opelka",
    "player2": "Alexei Popyrin",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T04:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.73
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.98,
      "p2": 1.81
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7903,
    "prob_p2": 0.2097,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7903,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 63,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 50,
      "utr_singles": 15.09,
      "utr_ranking": 82,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 21,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 82,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8541176470588235,
    "utr_diff": -0.10999999999999943,
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    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 32.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": -139,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 7.280952380952385,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 32.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 33.33333333333333,
    "utr_advantage": -0.7234462347911833,
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    "best_rank_diff": 2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.1823215567939546,
    "rank_advantage": -10,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8888888888888888,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 26.66666666666667,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.109523809523811,
    "p1_surface_matches": 35,
    "p2_surface_matches": 21,
    "serve_quality_diff": 14.989523809523817,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0340909090909092,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9903846153846154,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 5.4,
    "combined_confidence": 0.85,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.07619047619049,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.6493816956332195,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.364736182294879,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -4.861908181172123,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.97435897435898,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 36.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.171428571428564,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.6666666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 22.434000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
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    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10999999999999999,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.17666666666666675,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 19.52820512820513,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
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  "feature_importance": {}
}