Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Sebastian Korda
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 14:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastian Korda
Thanasi …: 35,0% Sebastian …: 65,0%
¿Por qué Sebastian Korda?
UTR 15,45 vs 15,47 (-0,04) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Thanasi … Sebastian … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,75 1,28 26,7%
IA Fair Odds 2,86 1,54 35,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Thanasi …: +9,6% Sebastian …: -9,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Ranking #450
UTR Rating 15,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #33
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (5p)
WR Hard 3/5 = 60,0%
Sebastian Korda
Ranking #53
UTR Rating 15,47 Pro
UTR Ranking #29
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 17/30 = 56,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -404,0000
rank_ratio 0,1022
log_rank_ratio -2,2806
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -990,0000
best_rank_diff -50,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,3333
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,2952
surface_matches_ratio 0,1667
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,0000
surface_wr_p2 56,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 57,7778
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,8824
p1_surface_matches 5,0000
p2_surface_matches 30,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,6833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,7040
first_serve_won_diff -0,8133
second_serve_won_diff -13,2133
bp_saved_diff 5,2067
bp_converted_diff 10,4133
aces_per_match_diff 1,8333
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -15,6100
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 361,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9746
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9722
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 1,3833
serve_consistency_p2 12,4929
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -7,6020
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,5040
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,3373
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0400
utr_p1 0,8788
utr_p2 0,8835
utr_advantage -0,2582
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22241
API ID 15340340
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22241,
    "api_id": 15340340,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Thanasi Kokkinakis",
    "player2": "Sebastian Korda",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T10:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.75,
      "p2": 1.28
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.38,
      "p2": 1.31
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.35,
    "prob_p2": 0.65,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.65,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 450,
      "utr_singles": 15.45,
      "utr_ranking": 33,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 5,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 53,
      "utr_singles": 15.47,
      "utr_ranking": 29,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.666666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.45,
      "ranking": 33,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.47,
      "ranking": 29,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8788235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.8835294117647059,
    "utr_diff": -0.03999999999999915,
    "rank_ratio": 0.10222222222222223,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": -990,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.2066666666666634,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -12.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.666666666666664,
    "utr_advantage": -0.25823111684957484,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -50,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.2806061862752705,
    "rank_advantage": -404,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.3333333333333357,
    "bp_converted_diff": 10.413333333333334,
    "p1_surface_matches": 5,
    "p2_surface_matches": 30,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.7040000000000077,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9745762711864406,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9722222222222222,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.833333333333334,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.8133333333333468,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 1.3832891609313327,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.492939560842112,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -7.602020620917574,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 57.77777777777778,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.88235294117647,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -13.213333333333338,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -15.61,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 361,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.504,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.3373333333333334,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.2952069716775603,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}