Daria Kasatkina vs Maria Sakkari
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daria Kasatkina
Daria …: 55,7% Maria …: 44,3%
¿Por qué Daria Kasatkina?
UTR 12,18 vs 12,17 (+0,01) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daria … Maria … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,91 52,4%
Gamdom 2,47 1,58 40,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,80 2,26 55,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Daria …: +5,7% Maria …: -5,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daria Kasatkina
Ranking #43
UTR Rating 12,18 Pro
UTR Ranking #58
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 12/25 = 48,0%
Maria Sakkari
Ranking #53
UTR Rating 12,17 Pro
UTR Ranking #60
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 15/35 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 11,0000
rank_ratio 1,2750
log_rank_ratio 0,2429
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 159,0000
best_rank_diff -5,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 5,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,2956
surface_matches_ratio 0,7143
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,0000
surface_wr_p2 42,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,2759
surface_wr_p2_stable 43,5897
p1_surface_matches 25,0000
p2_surface_matches 35,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0400
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,8069
first_serve_won_diff -1,4771
second_serve_won_diff 0,5343
bp_saved_diff 1,9114
bp_converted_diff 4,9143
aces_per_match_diff -1,1143
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 2,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -51,0350
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6488
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6810
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4444
serve_consistency_p1 6,8251
serve_consistency_p2 9,8947
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,2494
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0310
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0604
elite_surface_amplifier 5,1429
UTR
utr_diff 0,0100
utr_p1 0,4941
utr_p2 0,4929
utr_advantage 0,0820
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22246
API ID 15340313
Gamdom ID 586874
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22246,
    "api_id": 15340313,
    "gamdom_id": 586874,
    "player1": "Daria Kasatkina",
    "player2": "Maria Sakkari",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T08:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9100000000000001,
      "p2": 1.9100000000000001
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.47,
      "p2": 1.58
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.43,
      "p2": 1.54
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5567,
    "prob_p2": 0.4433,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5567,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 43,
      "utr_singles": 12.18,
      "utr_ranking": 58,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 53,
      "utr_singles": 12.17,
      "utr_ranking": 60,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.18,
      "ranking": 58,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.17,
      "ranking": 60,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.49294117647058816,
    "utr_diff": 0.009999999999999787,
    "rank_ratio": 1.275,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 2.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": 159,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.9114285714285728,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -50.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
    "utr_advantage": 0.08200082000819833,
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    "best_rank_diff": -5,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
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    "rank_advantage": 11,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 5.142857142857146,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.914285714285711,
    "p1_surface_matches": 25,
    "p2_surface_matches": 35,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.806857142857133,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6487804878048781,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6810344827586207,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.1142857142857143,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.4771428571428515,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.04,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.825080924910899,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.894733253979817,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.249437489996289,
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    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.58974358974359,
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    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
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    "elite_surface_amplifier": 5.142857142857146,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.031000000000000028,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.06042857142857144,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.295608605953431,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}