Daria Kasatkina vs Maria Sakkari
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 12:00
12 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daria Kasatkina
Daria …: 55,7%
Maria …: 44,3%
¿Por qué Daria Kasatkina?
UTR 12,18 vs 12,17
(+0,01)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daria … | Maria … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,91 | 1,91 | 52,4% |
| Gamdom | 2,47 | 1,58 | 40,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,80 | 2,26 | 55,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daria …: +5,7%
Maria …: -5,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daria Kasatkina
Ranking
#43
UTR Rating
12,18 Pro
UTR Ranking
#58
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
12/25 = 48,0%
Maria Sakkari
Ranking
#53
UTR Rating
12,17 Pro
UTR Ranking
#60
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
15/35 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 11,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,2750 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,2429 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 159,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -5,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 5,1429 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,2956 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7143 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,2759 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 43,5897 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0400 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,8069 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,4771 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,5343 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,9114 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,9143 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,1143 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -50,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -51,0350 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6488 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6810 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4444 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,8251 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,8947 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 1,2494 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0310 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0604 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 5,1429 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4941 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4929 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0820 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22246
API ID
15340313
Gamdom ID
586874
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22246,
"api_id": 15340313,
"gamdom_id": 586874,
"player1": "Daria Kasatkina",
"player2": "Maria Sakkari",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-12T08:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.9100000000000001,
"p2": 1.9100000000000001
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.47,
"p2": 1.58
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.43,
"p2": 1.54
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5567,
"prob_p2": 0.4433,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5567,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 43,
"utr_singles": 12.18,
"utr_ranking": 58,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 53,
"utr_singles": 12.17,
"utr_ranking": 60,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.18,
"ranking": 58,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.17,
"ranking": 60,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.49294117647058816,
"utr_diff": 0.009999999999999787,
"rank_ratio": 1.275,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 2.0,
"momentum_p2": 52.0,
"points_diff": 159,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.9114285714285728,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -50.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
"utr_advantage": 0.08200082000819833,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -5,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.2429461786103894,
"rank_advantage": 11,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4444444444444444,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": 5.142857142857146,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.914285714285711,
"p1_surface_matches": 25,
"p2_surface_matches": 35,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.806857142857133,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6487804878048781,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6810344827586207,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.1142857142857143,
"combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.4771428571428515,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.04,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.825080924910899,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.894733253979817,
"surface_rank_synergy": 1.249437489996289,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.275862068965516,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.58974358974359,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.5342857142857156,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -51.03500000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 5.142857142857146,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.031000000000000028,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.06042857142857144,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.295608605953431,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}