Emerson Jones vs Emma Navarro
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Emma Navarro
Emerson …: 16,2% Emma …: 83,8%
¿Por qué Emma Navarro?
UTR 11,85 vs 12,31 (-0,57) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Emerson … Emma … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,00 1,25 25,0%
Gamdom 3,45 1,33 29,0%
IA Fair Odds 6,18 1,19 16,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Emerson …: -7,6% Emma …: +7,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emerson Jones
Ranking #153
UTR Rating 11,85 Junior
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 3/7 = 42,9%
Emma Navarro
Ranking #15
UTR Rating 12,31 Pro
UTR Ranking #41
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 19/33 = 57,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -132,0000
rank_ratio 0,1020
log_rank_ratio -2,2824
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -2024,0000
best_rank_diff -139,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -14,7186
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,9239
surface_matches_ratio 0,2121
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 42,8571
surface_wr_p2 57,5758
surface_wr_p1_stable 46,8182
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,7568
p1_surface_matches 7,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3933
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,6967
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,3133
first_serve_won_diff -0,1545
second_serve_won_diff -1,8545
bp_saved_diff -4,9636
bp_converted_diff -11,5909
aces_per_match_diff -0,8398
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 10,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 22,8350
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3750
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6980
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 7,3290
serve_consistency_p2 7,8857
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 33,5935
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0606
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0562
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5700
utr_p1 0,4471
utr_p2 0,5141
utr_advantage -4,7166
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22247
API ID 15340316
Gamdom ID 586880
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22247,
    "api_id": 15340316,
    "gamdom_id": 586880,
    "player1": "Emerson Jones",
    "player2": "Emma Navarro",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.0,
      "p2": 1.25
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.45,
      "p2": 1.33
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.28,
      "p2": 1.33
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1617,
    "prob_p2": 0.8383,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8383,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 153,
      "utr_singles": 11.85,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Junior",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 15,
      "utr_singles": 12.31,
      "utr_ranking": 41,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.57575757575758,
      "wr_surface_wins": 19,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.85,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Junior",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.31,
      "ranking": 41,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.44705882352941184,
    "utr_p2": 0.5141176470588235,
    "utr_diff": -0.5699999999999985,
    "rank_ratio": 0.10204081632653061,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 10.0,
    "points_diff": -2024,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -4.963636363636368,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.57575757575758,
    "utr_advantage": -4.716590815059979,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -139,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.2823823856765264,
    "rank_advantage": -132,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -14.718614718614724,
    "bp_converted_diff": -11.590909090909093,
    "p1_surface_matches": 7,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.3132900432900385,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.375,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6979591836734694,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.8398268398268399,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6966666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.1545454545454632,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.3290024709687245,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.885664380222712,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 33.59350697532551,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 46.81818181818182,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.75675675675676,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.854545454545459,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.21212121212121213,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 22.834999999999994,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.060571428571428554,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.056242424242424205,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.923873873873873,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}