Emerson Jones vs Emma Navarro
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 04:30
12 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Emma Navarro
Emerson …: 16,2%
Emma …: 83,8%
¿Por qué Emma Navarro?
UTR 11,85 vs 12,31
(-0,57)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Emerson … | Emma … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4,00 | 1,25 | 25,0% |
| Gamdom | 3,45 | 1,33 | 29,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 6,18 | 1,19 | 16,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Emerson …: -7,6%
Emma …: +7,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emerson Jones
Ranking
#153
UTR Rating
11,85 Junior
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
3/7 = 42,9%
Emma Navarro
Ranking
#15
UTR Rating
12,31 Pro
UTR Ranking
#41
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
19/33 = 57,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -132,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1020 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,2824 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2024,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -139,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -14,7186 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,9239 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,2121 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,5758 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 46,8182 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 56,7568 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6967 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,3133 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,1545 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,8545 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -4,9636 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -11,5909 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,8398 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 22,8350 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,3750 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6980 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5714 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,3290 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,8857 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 33,5935 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0606 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0562 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4471 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5141 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,7166 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22247
API ID
15340316
Gamdom ID
586880
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22247,
"api_id": 15340316,
"gamdom_id": 586880,
"player1": "Emerson Jones",
"player2": "Emma Navarro",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-12T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.0,
"p2": 1.25
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.45,
"p2": 1.33
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.28,
"p2": 1.33
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1617,
"prob_p2": 0.8383,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8383,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 153,
"utr_singles": 11.85,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Junior",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 15,
"utr_singles": 12.31,
"utr_ranking": 41,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.57575757575758,
"wr_surface_wins": 19,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.85,
"ranking": 3,
"division": "Junior",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.31,
"ranking": 41,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.44705882352941184,
"utr_p2": 0.5141176470588235,
"utr_diff": -0.5699999999999985,
"rank_ratio": 0.10204081632653061,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 10.0,
"points_diff": -2024,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -4.963636363636368,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 30.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.57575757575758,
"utr_advantage": -4.716590815059979,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -139,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.2823823856765264,
"rank_advantage": -132,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -14.718614718614724,
"bp_converted_diff": -11.590909090909093,
"p1_surface_matches": 7,
"p2_surface_matches": 33,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.3132900432900385,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.375,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6979591836734694,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.8398268398268399,
"combined_confidence": 0.6966666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.1545454545454632,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.3290024709687245,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.885664380222712,
"surface_rank_synergy": 33.59350697532551,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 46.81818181818182,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.75675675675676,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.854545454545459,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.21212121212121213,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 22.834999999999994,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.060571428571428554,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.056242424242424205,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.923873873873873,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}