Liudmila Samsonova vs Marketa Vondrousova
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 06:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marketa Vondrousova
Liudmila …: 30,8% Marketa …: 69,2%
¿Por qué Marketa Vondrousova?
UTR 12,36 vs 12,61 (-0,30) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Liudmila … Marketa … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,73 2,10 57,8%
Gamdom 2,12 1,76 47,2%
IA Fair Odds 3,25 1,44 30,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Liudmila …: -24,1% Marketa …: +24,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Liudmila Samsonova
Ranking #18
UTR Rating 12,36 Pro
UTR Ranking #38
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 13/27 = 48,1%
Marketa Vondrousova
Ranking #34
UTR Rating 12,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #13
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 10/18 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 17,0000
rank_ratio 2,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,6931
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 764,0000
best_rank_diff -6,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -7,4074
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -4,6188
surface_matches_ratio 1,5000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,1481
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,3871
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,5455
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 18,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0370
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 0,6000
combined_confidence 0,7500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,1233
first_serve_won_diff -0,2000
second_serve_won_diff -2,3000
bp_saved_diff -0,6000
bp_converted_diff 2,3000
aces_per_match_diff -1,1667
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 10,0000
momentum_diff 42,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 29,9700
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6290
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 3,3359
serve_consistency_p2 10,0036
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -5,1344
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0355
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0726
elite_surface_amplifier -7,4074
UTR
utr_diff -0,3000
utr_p1 0,5129
utr_p2 0,5482
utr_advantage -2,3981
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22249
API ID 15340315
Gamdom ID 586873
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22249,
    "api_id": 15340315,
    "gamdom_id": 586873,
    "player1": "Liudmila Samsonova",
    "player2": "Marketa Vondrousova",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-13T02:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.73,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.12,
      "p2": 1.76
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.09,
      "p2": 1.73
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3077,
    "prob_p2": 0.6923,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6923,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 18,
      "utr_singles": 12.36,
      "utr_ranking": 38,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.148148148148145,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 34,
      "utr_singles": 12.61,
      "utr_ranking": 13,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.36,
      "ranking": 38,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.61,
      "ranking": 13,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5129411764705881,
    "utr_p2": 0.548235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.3000000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 2.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 10.0,
    "points_diff": 764,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.6000000000000014,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 42.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.148148148148145,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": -2.3980815347721878,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -6,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.6931471805599453,
    "rank_advantage": 17,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -7.407407407407412,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.299999999999997,
    "p1_surface_matches": 27,
    "p2_surface_matches": 18,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.123333333333342,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6290322580645161,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.166666666666667,
    "combined_confidence": 0.75,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.20000000000000284,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.037037037037037035,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.3358985372505043,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.003647734502325,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -5.134423559703301,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.38709677419355,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.3000000000000043,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 29.970000000000006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -7.407407407407412,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03551851851851856,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.0725555555555556,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.618768328445741,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}