Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mirra Andreeva
Mirra …: 70,1% Leylah …: 29,9%
¿Por qué Mirra Andreeva?
UTR 12,64 vs 12,53 (+0,10) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mirra … Leylah … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,75 69,4%
Gamdom 1,44 2,80 69,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,43 3,35 70,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Mirra …: +4,5% Leylah …: -4,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mirra Andreeva
Ranking #7
UTR Rating 12,64 Pro
UTR Ranking #10
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 24/32 = 75,0%
Leylah Fernandez
Ranking #23
UTR Rating 12,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #20
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 28/43 = 65,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 13,0000
rank_ratio 2,4444
log_rank_ratio 0,8938
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 2304,0000
best_rank_diff 8,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 9,8837
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,3924
surface_matches_ratio 0,7442
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 75,0000
surface_wr_p2 65,1163
surface_wr_p1_stable 72,2222
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8298
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 43,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,5578
first_serve_won_diff 0,9000
second_serve_won_diff 1,9000
bp_saved_diff 0,2000
bp_converted_diff 5,0000
aces_per_match_diff 1,2689
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 13,4200
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7446
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8537
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 7,4266
serve_consistency_p2 9,7040
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 8,8342
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2370
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1642
elite_surface_amplifier 19,7674
UTR
utr_diff 0,1000
utr_p1 0,5482
utr_p2 0,5365
utr_advantage 0,7930
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22251
API ID 15340317
Gamdom ID 586878
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status cancelled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22251,
    "api_id": 15340317,
    "gamdom_id": 586878,
    "player1": "Mirra Andreeva",
    "player2": "Leylah Fernandez",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-12T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "cancelled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.8
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.76
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7014,
    "prob_p2": 0.2986,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7014,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 7,
      "utr_singles": 12.64,
      "utr_ranking": 10,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 23,
      "utr_singles": 12.53,
      "utr_ranking": 20,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.11627906976744,
      "wr_surface_wins": 28,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.64,
      "ranking": 10,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.53,
      "ranking": 20,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.548235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.5364705882352941,
    "utr_diff": 0.09999999999999964,
    "rank_ratio": 2.4444444444444446,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 2304,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.20000000000000284,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 19.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 75.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.11627906976744,
    "utr_advantage": 0.7930214115781098,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 8,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.8938178760220965,
    "rank_advantage": 13,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 9.883720930232556,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 43,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.5577906976744273,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7445652173913043,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8536585365853658,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.2688953488372094,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.9000000000000057,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.426625118302842,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.703989787048705,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 8.834246449055604,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 72.22222222222221,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.829787234042556,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.9000000000000057,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7441860465116279,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 13.420000000000009,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 19.767441860465112,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.237,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16416279069767448,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.392434988179659,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}