Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk
Brisbane | Hard | Final
11 Ene 2026, 10:00
11 Ene 2026, 10:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 90,9%
Marta …: 9,1%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,61
(+0,39)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Marta … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,33 | 3,40 | 75,2% |
| Gamdom | 1,30 | 3,70 | 76,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,10 | 11,04 | 90,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: +19,1%
Marta …: -19,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Marta Kostyuk
Ranking
#20
UTR Rating
12,61 Pro
UTR Ranking
#14
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
22/35 = 62,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 25,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 26,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 3,2581 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 8831,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 15,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 22,8571 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 21,0702 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,2000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 62,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 61,5385 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,8355 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,7619 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,7057 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,2862 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,8281 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,4714 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7569 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,1974 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,0356 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 74,4708 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3321 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1536 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 45,7143 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5329 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,0648 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22254
API ID
15302204
Gamdom ID
564709
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22254,
"api_id": 15302204,
"gamdom_id": 564709,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Marta Kostyuk",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Final",
"date": "2026-01-11T06:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.33,
"p2": 3.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.7
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.28,
"p2": 3.64
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.9094,
"prob_p2": 0.0906,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.9094,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 20,
"utr_singles": 12.61,
"utr_ranking": 14,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.97,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.61,
"ranking": 14,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5788235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.5329411764705881,
"utr_diff": 0.39000000000000057,
"rank_ratio": 26.0,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 8831,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.2861904761904768,
"h2h_wins_diff": 2,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 62.857142857142854,
"utr_advantage": 3.0648330058939144,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 15,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 3.258096538021482,
"rank_advantage": 25,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 22.857142857142854,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.82809523809523,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 35,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.8355238095238207,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7568627450980392,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.4714285714285711,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.7619047619047876,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.197408849136843,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.035631977063774,
"surface_rank_synergy": 74.47077801191958,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.53846153846154,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.7057142857142793,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.2,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 45.71428571428571,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3321428571428571,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15357142857142858,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 21.070234113712367,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}