Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk
Brisbane | Hard | Final
11 Ene 2026, 10:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 90,9% Marta …: 9,1%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,61 (+0,39) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Marta … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,33 3,40 75,2%
Gamdom 1,30 3,70 76,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,10 11,04 90,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: +19,1% Marta …: -19,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Marta Kostyuk
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 12,61 Pro
UTR Ranking #14
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 22/35 = 62,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 25,0000
rank_ratio 26,0000
log_rank_ratio 3,2581
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 8831,0000
best_rank_diff 15,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 22,8571
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 21,0702
surface_matches_ratio 1,2000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 62,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,5385
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 35,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,8355
first_serve_won_diff 0,7619
second_serve_won_diff 1,7057
bp_saved_diff 3,2862
bp_converted_diff 3,8281
aces_per_match_diff 0,4714
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,4000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7569
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 5,1974
serve_consistency_p2 8,0356
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 74,4708
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3321
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1536
elite_surface_amplifier 45,7143
UTR
utr_diff 0,3900
utr_p1 0,5788
utr_p2 0,5329
utr_advantage 3,0648
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22254
API ID 15302204
Gamdom ID 564709
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22254,
    "api_id": 15302204,
    "gamdom_id": 564709,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Marta Kostyuk",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2026-01-11T06:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.7
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.64
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.9094,
    "prob_p2": 0.0906,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.9094,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 12.61,
      "utr_ranking": 14,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.61,
      "ranking": 14,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5788235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.5329411764705881,
    "utr_diff": 0.39000000000000057,
    "rank_ratio": 26.0,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 8831,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.2861904761904768,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 2,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.857142857142854,
    "utr_advantage": 3.0648330058939144,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 15,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 3.258096538021482,
    "rank_advantage": 25,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 22.857142857142854,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.82809523809523,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 35,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.8355238095238207,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7568627450980392,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.4714285714285711,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.7619047619047876,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.197408849136843,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.035631977063774,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 74.47077801191958,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.53846153846154,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.7057142857142793,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 45.71428571428571,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3321428571428571,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15357142857142858,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 21.070234113712367,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}