Elsa Jacquemot vs Magdalena Frech
Hobart | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 07:35
13 Ene 2026, 07:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elsa Jacquemot
Elsa …: 77,0%
Magdalena …: 23,0%
¿Por qué Elsa Jacquemot?
UTR 11,94 vs 12,16
(-0,06)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elsa … | Magdalena … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,10 | 1,73 | 47,6% |
| Gamdom | 2,65 | 1,51 | 37,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,30 | 4,35 | 77,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elsa …: +31,8%
Magdalena …: -31,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elsa Jacquemot
Ranking
#60
UTR Rating
11,94 Pro
UTR Ranking
#122
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
18/28 = 64,3%
Magdalena Frech
Ranking
#57
UTR Rating
12,16 Pro
UTR Ranking
#62
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
8/23 = 34,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0536 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0522 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 19,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -33,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 29,5031 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 21,6435 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,2174 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 34,7826 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 37,0370 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2857 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 10,1022 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 8,6214 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,3214 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 12,3607 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,7357 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,3975 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -18,4700 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8824 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7049 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,2559 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,5221 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 1,5396 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1399 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1492 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4694 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4765 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,4992 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22289
API ID
15340369
Gamdom ID
586919
Torneo
Hobart
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22289,
"api_id": 15340369,
"gamdom_id": 586919,
"player1": "Elsa Jacquemot",
"player2": "Magdalena Frech",
"tournament": "Hobart",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-13T03:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.73
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.65,
"p2": 1.51
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.58,
"p2": 1.5
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.77,
"prob_p2": 0.23,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.77,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 60,
"utr_singles": 11.94,
"utr_ranking": 122,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 57,
"utr_singles": 12.16,
"utr_ranking": 62,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 34.78260869565217,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.94,
"ranking": 122,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.16,
"ranking": 62,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.4764705882352942,
"utr_diff": -0.0600000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 1.0535714285714286,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": 19,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 12.360714285714288,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -9.999999999999996,
"p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
"surface_wr_p2": 34.78260869565217,
"utr_advantage": -0.4991680532445965,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -33,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.05218575317057025,
"rank_advantage": 3,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 29.50310559006212,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.73571428571428,
"p1_surface_matches": 28,
"p2_surface_matches": 23,
"serve_quality_diff": 10.102173913043472,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8823529411764706,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7049180327868853,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.3975155279503104,
"combined_confidence": 0.85,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 8.621428571428567,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.255879124237836,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.522145069410741,
"surface_rank_synergy": 1.539641786088253,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 37.03703703703704,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.3214285714285765,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.2173913043478262,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -18.47,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1398571428571429,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.14917391304347827,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 21.643518518518515,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}