Elsa Jacquemot vs Magdalena Frech
Hobart | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 07:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elsa Jacquemot
Elsa …: 77,0% Magdalena …: 23,0%
¿Por qué Elsa Jacquemot?
UTR 11,94 vs 12,16 (-0,06) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elsa … Magdalena … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,10 1,73 47,6%
Gamdom 2,65 1,51 37,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,30 4,35 77,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Elsa …: +31,8% Magdalena …: -31,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elsa Jacquemot
Ranking #60
UTR Rating 11,94 Pro
UTR Ranking #122
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 18/28 = 64,3%
Magdalena Frech
Ranking #57
UTR Rating 12,16 Pro
UTR Ranking #62
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 8/23 = 34,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 3,0000
rank_ratio 1,0536
log_rank_ratio 0,0522
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 19,0000
best_rank_diff -33,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 29,5031
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 21,6435
surface_matches_ratio 1,2174
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,2857
surface_wr_p2 34,7826
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,5000
surface_wr_p2_stable 37,0370
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2857
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,8500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 10,1022
first_serve_won_diff 8,6214
second_serve_won_diff 3,3214
bp_saved_diff 12,3607
bp_converted_diff 5,7357
aces_per_match_diff 2,3975
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -18,4700
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8824
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7049
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 9,2559
serve_consistency_p2 5,5221
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,5396
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1399
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1492
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0600
utr_p1 0,4694
utr_p2 0,4765
utr_advantage -0,4992
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22289
API ID 15340369
Gamdom ID 586919
Torneo Hobart
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22289,
    "api_id": 15340369,
    "gamdom_id": 586919,
    "player1": "Elsa Jacquemot",
    "player2": "Magdalena Frech",
    "tournament": "Hobart",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-13T03:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.73
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.65,
      "p2": 1.51
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.58,
      "p2": 1.5
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.77,
    "prob_p2": 0.23,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.77,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 60,
      "utr_singles": 11.94,
      "utr_ranking": 122,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 57,
      "utr_singles": 12.16,
      "utr_ranking": 62,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 34.78260869565217,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.94,
      "ranking": 122,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.16,
      "ranking": 62,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.46941176470588236,
    "utr_p2": 0.4764705882352942,
    "utr_diff": -0.0600000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0535714285714286,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": 19,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 12.360714285714288,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -9.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
    "surface_wr_p2": 34.78260869565217,
    "utr_advantage": -0.4991680532445965,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -33,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.05218575317057025,
    "rank_advantage": 3,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 29.50310559006212,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.73571428571428,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": 10.102173913043472,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8823529411764706,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7049180327868853,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.3975155279503104,
    "combined_confidence": 0.85,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 8.621428571428567,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.255879124237836,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.522145069410741,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.539641786088253,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 37.03703703703704,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.3214285714285765,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2173913043478262,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -18.47,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1398571428571429,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.14917391304347827,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 21.643518518518515,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}