Olga Danilovic vs McCartney Kessler
Hobart | Hard | Round of 32
12 Ene 2026, 11:30
12 Ene 2026, 11:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
McCartney Kessler
Olga …: 24,3%
McCartney …: 75,6%
¿Por qué McCartney Kessler?
UTR 12,27 vs 12,39
(-0,12)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Olga … | McCartney … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,63 | 1,50 | 38,0% |
| Gamdom | 3,35 | 1,35 | 29,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,11 | 1,32 | 24,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Olga …: -12,0%
McCartney …: +12,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Olga Danilovic
Ranking
#69
UTR Rating
12,27 Pro
UTR Ranking
#48
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
7/16 = 43,8%
McCartney Kessler
Ranking
#37
UTR Rating
12,39 Pro
UTR Ranking
#29
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
27/42 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -36,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,4627 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,7707 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -596,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -20,5357 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -13,8333 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,3810 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 43,7500 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 45,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,0435 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 16,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1250 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,5465 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,7625 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,5250 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,0250 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,5000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,2351 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 12,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 2,8790 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 86,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8450 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7901 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,6549 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,9245 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 15,8270 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0265 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1069 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5035 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5176 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,9724 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22293
API ID
15340360
Gamdom ID
586923
Torneo
Hobart
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22293,
"api_id": 15340360,
"gamdom_id": 586923,
"player1": "Olga Danilovic",
"player2": "McCartney Kessler",
"tournament": "Hobart",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-12T07:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.63,
"p2": 1.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.35,
"p2": 1.35
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.2,
"p2": 1.34
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2435,
"prob_p2": 0.7565,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7565,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 69,
"utr_singles": 12.27,
"utr_ranking": 48,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 43.75,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 16,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 37,
"utr_singles": 12.39,
"utr_ranking": 29,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 48,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.39,
"ranking": 29,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5176470588235295,
"utr_diff": -0.120000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 0.4626865671641791,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": -596,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.0249999999999915,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 12.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 43.75,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
"utr_advantage": -0.9724473257698621,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -2,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.7707054149058198,
"rank_advantage": -36,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -20.535714285714292,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.5,
"p1_surface_matches": 16,
"p2_surface_matches": 42,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.5464880952380966,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8449612403100775,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7901234567901234,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.2351190476190477,
"combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.7625000000000028,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.125,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.654920425489923,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.924473828457554,
"surface_rank_synergy": 15.826986198958803,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 45.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.04347826086957,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.5249999999999986,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.38095238095238093,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 2.879000000000005,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 86,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.026499999999999968,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10685714285714287,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.833333333333336,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}