Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima
Brisbane | Hard | Final
11 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 71,1% Brandon …: 28,9%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 15,41 (+0,35) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniil … Brandon … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,36 3,20 73,5%
Gamdom 1,31 3,50 76,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,41 3,46 71,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniil …: +1,0% Brandon …: -1,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #8
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 30/46 = 65,2%
Brandon Nakashima
Ranking #30
UTR Rating 15,41 Pro
UTR Ranking #33
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 21/39 = 53,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 20,0000
rank_ratio 2,5385
log_rank_ratio 0,9316
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1330,0000
best_rank_diff 28,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 11,3712
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,5116
surface_matches_ratio 1,1795
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,2174
surface_wr_p2 53,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 64,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 53,4884
p1_surface_matches 46,0000
p2_surface_matches 39,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,4504
first_serve_won_diff 4,0110
second_serve_won_diff 4,8127
bp_saved_diff -5,6047
bp_converted_diff -1,1582
aces_per_match_diff 0,5006
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8483
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9762
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5238
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 11,2522
serve_consistency_p2 4,2872
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 10,5930
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1322
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0585
elite_surface_amplifier 11,3712
UTR
utr_diff 0,3500
utr_p1 0,9188
utr_p2 0,8776
utr_advantage 2,2386
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22299
API ID 15298537
Gamdom ID 563263
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22299,
    "api_id": 15298537,
    "gamdom_id": 563263,
    "player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
    "player2": "Brandon Nakashima",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2026-01-11T08:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3599999999999999,
      "p2": 3.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.31,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.29,
      "p2": 3.58
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7113,
    "prob_p2": 0.2887,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7113,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 15.81,
      "utr_ranking": 8,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 30,
      "utr_singles": 15.41,
      "utr_ranking": 33,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 39,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.81,
      "ranking": 8,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.41,
      "ranking": 33,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9188235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.8776470588235296,
    "utr_diff": 0.34999999999999964,
    "rank_ratio": 2.5384615384615383,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 1330,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.604682274247487,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
    "surface_wr_p2": 53.84615384615385,
    "utr_advantage": 2.2385673169171705,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 28,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.9315582040049435,
    "rank_advantage": 20,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 11.371237458193981,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.1581939799331167,
    "p1_surface_matches": 46,
    "p2_surface_matches": 39,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.45044593088069,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.500557413600891,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.011036789297648,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.252227326487377,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.287151932721577,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 10.592969543868923,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.48837209302325,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.812709030100329,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.1794871794871795,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 11.371237458193981,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13217391304347825,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.058461538461538454,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.511627906976749,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}