Jacob Fearnley vs Christopher O'Connell
Adelaide | Hard |
11 Ene 2026, 03:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jacob Fearnley
Jacob …: 57,1% Christopher …: 42,9%
¿Por qué Jacob Fearnley?
UTR 15,30 vs 14,87 (+0,50) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jacob … Christopher … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,20 61,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,75 2,33 57,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Jacob …: -0,5% Christopher …: +0,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jacob Fearnley
Ranking #77
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #49
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 18/32 = 56,3%
Christopher O'Connell
Ranking #118
UTR Rating 14,87 Pro
UTR Ranking #102
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 16/30 = 53,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 40,0000
rank_ratio 1,5405
log_rank_ratio 0,4321
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 216,0000
best_rank_diff 4,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 2,9167
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 2,6144
surface_matches_ratio 1,0667
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 56,2500
surface_wr_p2 53,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,5556
surface_wr_p2_stable 52,9412
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 30,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1250
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,4775
first_serve_won_diff 3,3594
second_serve_won_diff 8,7844
bp_saved_diff -4,1625
bp_converted_diff -7,0750
aces_per_match_diff -1,4188
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 38,0000
momentum_diff -28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -21,7040
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 7,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8867
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7333
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6250
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2000
serve_consistency_p1 11,5326
serve_consistency_p2 5,5848
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,2604
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0225
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0733
elite_surface_amplifier 2,9167
UTR
utr_diff 0,5000
utr_p1 0,8765
utr_p2 0,8176
utr_advantage 3,2895
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22302
API ID 15341439
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22302,
    "api_id": 15341439,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Jacob Fearnley",
    "player2": "Christopher O'Connell",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-10T23:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6153846153846154,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.74,
      "p2": 2.05
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5712,
    "prob_p2": 0.4288,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5712,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 77,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 49,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 118,
      "utr_singles": 14.87,
      "utr_ranking": 102,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 49,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.87,
      "ranking": 102,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.876470588235294,
    "utr_p2": 0.8176470588235293,
    "utr_diff": 0.5,
    "rank_ratio": 1.5405405405405406,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 38.0,
    "points_diff": 216,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -4.1625000000000085,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -28.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 56.25,
    "surface_wr_p2": 53.333333333333336,
    "utr_advantage": 3.289473684210526,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 4,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.43213335519032575,
    "rank_advantage": 40,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 2.9166666666666643,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.075000000000003,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 30,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.4775000000000063,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8866995073891626,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7333333333333333,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.4187500000000002,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.359375,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.125,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.532614073507233,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.584807930983576,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.260388952638449,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.94117647058824,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 8.784374999999997,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0666666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -21.704000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 2.9166666666666643,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.022499999999999964,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.614379084967318,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}