Jacob Fearnley vs Christopher O'Connell
Adelaide | Hard |
11 Ene 2026, 03:30
11 Ene 2026, 03:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jacob Fearnley
Jacob …: 57,1%
Christopher …: 42,9%
¿Por qué Jacob Fearnley?
UTR 15,30 vs 14,87
(+0,50)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jacob … | Christopher … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,20 | 61,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,75 | 2,33 | 57,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jacob …: -0,5%
Christopher …: +0,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jacob Fearnley
Ranking
#77
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#49
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
18/32 = 56,3%
Christopher O'Connell
Ranking
#118
UTR Rating
14,87 Pro
UTR Ranking
#102
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
16/30 = 53,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 40,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,5405 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4321 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 216,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 4,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 2,9167 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 2,6144 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0667 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 56,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 52,9412 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1250 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,4775 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,3594 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 8,7844 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -4,1625 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -7,0750 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,4188 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -28,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -21,7040 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8867 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6250 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,2000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,5326 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,5848 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 1,2604 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0225 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0733 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 2,9167 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8765 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8176 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,2895 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22302
API ID
15341439
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22302,
"api_id": 15341439,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Jacob Fearnley",
"player2": "Christopher O'Connell",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-10T23:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.6153846153846154,
"p2": 2.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.74,
"p2": 2.05
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5712,
"prob_p2": 0.4288,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5712,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 77,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 49,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.25,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 118,
"utr_singles": 14.87,
"utr_ranking": 102,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.3,
"ranking": 49,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.87,
"ranking": 102,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.876470588235294,
"utr_p2": 0.8176470588235293,
"utr_diff": 0.5,
"rank_ratio": 1.5405405405405406,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 10.0,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": 216,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -4.1625000000000085,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -28.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 56.25,
"surface_wr_p2": 53.333333333333336,
"utr_advantage": 3.289473684210526,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 4,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.43213335519032575,
"rank_advantage": 40,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 2.9166666666666643,
"bp_converted_diff": -7.075000000000003,
"p1_surface_matches": 32,
"p2_surface_matches": 30,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.4775000000000063,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8866995073891626,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7333333333333333,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.4187500000000002,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.359375,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.125,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.532614073507233,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.584807930983576,
"surface_rank_synergy": 1.260388952638449,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.55555555555556,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.94117647058824,
"second_serve_won_diff": 8.784374999999997,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0666666666666667,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -21.704000000000008,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 2.9166666666666643,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 7,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.022499999999999964,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07333333333333336,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.614379084967318,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}