Luca Nardi vs Aleksandar Vukic
Adelaide | Hard |
11 Ene 2026, 05:45
11 Ene 2026, 05:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Luca Nardi
Luca …: 58,0%
Aleksandar …: 42,0%
¿Por qué Luca Nardi?
UTR 14,59 vs 14,77
(-0,11)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Luca … | Aleksandar … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,38 | 1,53 | 42,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,72 | 2,38 | 58,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Luca …: +18,7%
Aleksandar …: -18,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Nardi
Ranking
#108
UTR Rating
14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking
#145
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
22/41 = 53,7%
Aleksandar Vukic
Ranking
#78
UTR Rating
14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#112
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
19/43 = 44,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -18,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8286 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,1881 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -94,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -19,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 9,4725 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,6525 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9535 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,6585 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 44,1860 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 44,6809 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0732 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -13,6490 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,3613 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,3960 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,0613 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,8823 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -6,1248 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 28,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 10,6840 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 64,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4842 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1014 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,2609 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,9607 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,9825 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,7813 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0546 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0761 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7988 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,7465 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22304
API ID
15341446
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22304,
"api_id": 15341446,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Luca Nardi",
"player2": "Aleksandar Vukic",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-11T01:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.375,
"p2": 1.5333333333333332
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.12,
"p2": 1.7
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5798,
"prob_p2": 0.4202,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5798,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 108,
"utr_singles": 14.59,
"utr_ranking": 145,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 78,
"utr_singles": 14.77,
"utr_ranking": 112,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 44.18604651162791,
"wr_surface_wins": 19,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.59,
"ranking": 145,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.77,
"ranking": 112,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7858823529411765,
"utr_p2": 0.7988235294117646,
"utr_diff": -0.10999999999999943,
"rank_ratio": 0.8285714285714286,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 22.0,
"points_diff": -94,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.0612592172433395,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 28.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
"surface_wr_p2": 44.18604651162791,
"utr_advantage": -0.7465218866644007,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -19,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.1880522315029396,
"rank_advantage": -18,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2608695652173913,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 9.472490073737951,
"bp_converted_diff": 0.8823028927963676,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 43,
"serve_quality_diff": -13.648996029495166,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4842105263157895,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1014492753623188,
"aces_per_match_diff": -6.124787294384573,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.3612592172433153,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.960697149626386,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.982497764380441,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.7813228962558665,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.680851063829785,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.3959727736812297,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9534883720930233,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 10.683999999999997,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 64,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.054585365853658585,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.07613953488372094,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.652482269503551,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}