Luca Nardi vs Aleksandar Vukic
Adelaide | Hard |
11 Ene 2026, 05:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Luca Nardi
Luca …: 58,0% Aleksandar …: 42,0%
¿Por qué Luca Nardi?
UTR 14,59 vs 14,77 (-0,11) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Luca … Aleksandar … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,53 42,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,72 2,38 58,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Luca …: +18,7% Aleksandar …: -18,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Nardi
Ranking #108
UTR Rating 14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #145
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 22/41 = 53,7%
Aleksandar Vukic
Ranking #78
UTR Rating 14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #112
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 19/43 = 44,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -18,0000
rank_ratio 0,8286
log_rank_ratio -0,1881
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -94,0000
best_rank_diff -19,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 9,4725
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,6525
surface_matches_ratio 0,9535
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,6585
surface_wr_p2 44,1860
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 44,6809
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 43,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0732
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -13,6490
first_serve_won_diff -1,3613
second_serve_won_diff -2,3960
bp_saved_diff -2,0613
bp_converted_diff 0,8823
aces_per_match_diff -6,1248
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 22,0000
momentum_diff 28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 10,6840
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 64,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 6,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,4842
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1014
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2609
serve_consistency_p1 10,9607
serve_consistency_p2 5,9825
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,7813
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0546
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0761
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1100
utr_p1 0,7859
utr_p2 0,7988
utr_advantage -0,7465
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22304
API ID 15341446
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22304,
    "api_id": 15341446,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Luca Nardi",
    "player2": "Aleksandar Vukic",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-11T01:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.375,
      "p2": 1.5333333333333332
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.12,
      "p2": 1.7
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5798,
    "prob_p2": 0.4202,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5798,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 108,
      "utr_singles": 14.59,
      "utr_ranking": 145,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 78,
      "utr_singles": 14.77,
      "utr_ranking": 112,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 44.18604651162791,
      "wr_surface_wins": 19,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.59,
      "ranking": 145,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.77,
      "ranking": 112,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7858823529411765,
    "utr_p2": 0.7988235294117646,
    "utr_diff": -0.10999999999999943,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8285714285714286,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 22.0,
    "points_diff": -94,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.0612592172433395,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 28.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
    "surface_wr_p2": 44.18604651162791,
    "utr_advantage": -0.7465218866644007,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -19,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.1880522315029396,
    "rank_advantage": -18,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2608695652173913,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 9.472490073737951,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.8823028927963676,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 43,
    "serve_quality_diff": -13.648996029495166,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4842105263157895,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1014492753623188,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -6.124787294384573,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.3612592172433153,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.960697149626386,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.982497764380441,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.7813228962558665,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.680851063829785,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.3959727736812297,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9534883720930233,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 10.683999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 64,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 6,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.054585365853658585,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.07613953488372094,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.652482269503551,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}