Andrea Vavassori vs Raphael Collignon
Adelaide | Hard |
11 Ene 2026, 08:10
11 Ene 2026, 08:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Raphael Collignon
Andrea …: 49,4%
Raphael …: 50,6%
¿Por qué Raphael Collignon?
UTR 14,67 vs 14,93
(-0,40)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Andrea … | Raphael … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4,00 | 1,22 | 25,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,03 | 1,97 | 49,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Andrea …: +26,0%
Raphael …: -26,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Andrea Vavassori
Ranking
#291
UTR Rating
14,67 Pro
UTR Ranking
#133
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
8/13 = 61,5%
Raphael Collignon
Ranking
#72
UTR Rating
14,93 Pro
UTR Ranking
#96
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
21/32 = 65,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -250,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2515 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,3803 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -557,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -55,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -4,0865 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -3,7315 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,4063 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 61,5385 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,6250 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,8235 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,8889 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 13,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2308 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4733 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7367 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,8257 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,6793 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,7226 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 7,1231 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -10,9337 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,8654 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 20,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -40,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -44,4450 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 109,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -5,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9123 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,5897 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,1036 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 5,6407 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3654 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0938 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7612 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8082 | |
| utr_advantage | -2,7267 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22306
API ID
15341445
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22306,
"api_id": 15341445,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Andrea Vavassori",
"player2": "Raphael Collignon",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-11T04:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.0,
"p2": 1.2222222222222223
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.93,
"p2": 1.16
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4936,
"prob_p2": 0.5064,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5064,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 291,
"utr_singles": 14.67,
"utr_ranking": 133,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 13,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 72,
"utr_singles": 14.93,
"utr_ranking": 96,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.625,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.67,
"ranking": 133,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.93,
"ranking": 96,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7611764705882353,
"utr_p2": 0.8082352941176469,
"utr_diff": -0.3999999999999986,
"rank_ratio": 0.25149700598802394,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 20.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": -557,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 7.1230769230769155,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": -40.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.47333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 61.53846153846154,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.625,
"utr_advantage": -2.72665303340149,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -55,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.3803241941333868,
"rank_advantage": -250,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -5,
"surface_wr_diff": -4.08653846153846,
"bp_converted_diff": -10.933653846153852,
"p1_surface_matches": 13,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.8256730769230813,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9122807017543859,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.865384615384615,
"combined_confidence": 0.7366666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.679326923076914,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.23076923076923078,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.589671826582016,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.103638044022332,
"surface_rank_synergy": 5.640747908718165,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.82352941176471,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.888888888888886,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.722596153846155,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.40625,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -44.445000000000014,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 109,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3653846153846154,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.09375,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.731481481481476,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}