Andrea Vavassori vs Raphael Collignon
Adelaide | Hard |
11 Ene 2026, 08:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Raphael Collignon
Andrea …: 49,4% Raphael …: 50,6%
¿Por qué Raphael Collignon?
UTR 14,67 vs 14,93 (-0,40) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Andrea … Raphael … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,00 1,22 25,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,03 1,97 49,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Andrea …: +26,0% Raphael …: -26,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Andrea Vavassori
Ranking #291
UTR Rating 14,67 Pro
UTR Ranking #133
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 8/13 = 61,5%
Raphael Collignon
Ranking #72
UTR Rating 14,93 Pro
UTR Ranking #96
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 21/32 = 65,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -250,0000
rank_ratio 0,2515
log_rank_ratio -1,3803
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -557,0000
best_rank_diff -55,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -4,0865
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -3,7315
surface_matches_ratio 0,4063
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 61,5385
surface_wr_p2 65,6250
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,8235
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8889
p1_surface_matches 13,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2308
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4733
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7367
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,8257
first_serve_won_diff -5,6793
second_serve_won_diff -5,7226
bp_saved_diff 7,1231
bp_converted_diff -10,9337
aces_per_match_diff 1,8654
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 20,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -40,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -44,4450
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 109,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9123
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8000
serve_consistency_p1 8,5897
serve_consistency_p2 5,1036
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 5,6407
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3654
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0938
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4000
utr_p1 0,7612
utr_p2 0,8082
utr_advantage -2,7267
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22306
API ID 15341445
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22306,
    "api_id": 15341445,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Andrea Vavassori",
    "player2": "Raphael Collignon",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-11T04:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.0,
      "p2": 1.2222222222222223
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.93,
      "p2": 1.16
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4936,
    "prob_p2": 0.5064,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5064,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 291,
      "utr_singles": 14.67,
      "utr_ranking": 133,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 13,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 72,
      "utr_singles": 14.93,
      "utr_ranking": 96,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.625,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.67,
      "ranking": 133,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.93,
      "ranking": 96,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7611764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.8082352941176469,
    "utr_diff": -0.3999999999999986,
    "rank_ratio": 0.25149700598802394,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 20.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": -557,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 7.1230769230769155,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -40.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.47333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 61.53846153846154,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.625,
    "utr_advantage": -2.72665303340149,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -55,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.3803241941333868,
    "rank_advantage": -250,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -5,
    "surface_wr_diff": -4.08653846153846,
    "bp_converted_diff": -10.933653846153852,
    "p1_surface_matches": 13,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.8256730769230813,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9122807017543859,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.865384615384615,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7366666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.679326923076914,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.23076923076923078,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.589671826582016,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.103638044022332,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 5.640747908718165,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.82352941176471,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.888888888888886,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.722596153846155,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.40625,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -44.445000000000014,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 109,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3653846153846154,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.09375,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.731481481481476,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}