Jesper De Jong vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Adelaide | Hard |
11 Ene 2026, 08:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Jesper …: 50,0% Thiago …: 50,0%
¿Por qué Thiago Agustin Tirante?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jesper … Thiago … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,40 2,75 71,4%
IA Fair Odds 2,00 2,00 50,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Jesper …: -16,3% Thiago …: +16,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jesper De Jong
Ranking #73
UTR Rating 14,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #92
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 11/22 = 50,0%
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Ranking #103
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 9/14 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 32,0000
rank_ratio 1,4507
log_rank_ratio 0,3720
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 158,0000
best_rank_diff 19,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -14,2857
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,7778
surface_matches_ratio 1,5714
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 64,2857
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,1111
p1_surface_matches 22,0000
p2_surface_matches 14,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7333
p2_confidence 0,4867
combined_confidence 0,6100
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,6932
first_serve_won_diff 2,3500
second_serve_won_diff -0,5669
bp_saved_diff -11,9526
bp_converted_diff -10,2825
aces_per_match_diff 1,8442
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 20,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 6,7100
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 70,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9767
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6190
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 14,8209
serve_consistency_p2 8,8656
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -5,3150
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0320
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1749
elite_surface_amplifier -14,2857
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8318
utr_p2 0,8318
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22307
API ID 15341444
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22307,
    "api_id": 15341444,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Jesper De Jong",
    "player2": "Thiago Agustin Tirante",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-11T04:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.47,
      "p2": 2.6
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4998,
    "prob_p2": 0.5002,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5002,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 73,
      "utr_singles": 14.97,
      "utr_ranking": 92,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 22,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 103,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.97,
      "ranking": 92,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.831764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.4507042253521127,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 20.0,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": 158,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -11.952597402597412,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 19,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.3720491111883204,
    "rank_advantage": 32,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6190476190476191,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -14.285714285714292,
    "bp_converted_diff": -10.282467532467535,
    "p1_surface_matches": 22,
    "p2_surface_matches": 14,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.693246753246754,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9767441860465116,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.8441558441558445,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6100000000000001,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.3499999999999943,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 14.820945679645488,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.865579134832396,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -5.314987302690294,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.111111111111114,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.5668831168831261,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5714285714285714,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 6.710000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -14.285714285714292,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 70,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03200000000000003,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17485714285714293,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.777777777777781,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}