Jesper De Jong vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Adelaide | Hard |
11 Ene 2026, 08:15
11 Ene 2026, 08:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Jesper …: 50,0%
Thiago …: 50,0%
¿Por qué Thiago Agustin Tirante?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jesper … | Thiago … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,40 | 2,75 | 71,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,00 | 2,00 | 50,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jesper …: -16,3%
Thiago …: +16,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jesper De Jong
Ranking
#73
UTR Rating
14,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#92
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
11/22 = 50,0%
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Ranking
#103
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
9/14 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 32,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,4507 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,3720 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 158,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 19,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -14,2857 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,7778 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,5714 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 61,1111 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 22,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6100 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,6932 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,3500 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,5669 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -11,9526 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -10,2825 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,8442 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 20,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 20,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 6,7100 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9767 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6190 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7500 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 14,8209 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,8656 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -5,3150 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0320 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1749 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -14,2857 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8318 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8318 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22307
API ID
15341444
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22307,
"api_id": 15341444,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Jesper De Jong",
"player2": "Thiago Agustin Tirante",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-11T04:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.4,
"p2": 2.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.47,
"p2": 2.6
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4998,
"prob_p2": 0.5002,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5002,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 73,
"utr_singles": 14.97,
"utr_ranking": 92,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 22,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 103,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.97,
"ranking": 92,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.831764705882353,
"utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.4507042253521127,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 20.0,
"momentum_p2": 20.0,
"points_diff": 158,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -11.952597402597412,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
"p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 19,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.3720491111883204,
"rank_advantage": 32,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6190476190476191,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -14.285714285714292,
"bp_converted_diff": -10.282467532467535,
"p1_surface_matches": 22,
"p2_surface_matches": 14,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.693246753246754,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9767441860465116,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.8441558441558445,
"combined_confidence": 0.6100000000000001,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.3499999999999943,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 14.820945679645488,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.865579134832396,
"surface_rank_synergy": -5.314987302690294,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.111111111111114,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.5668831168831261,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.5714285714285714,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 6.710000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -14.285714285714292,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 70,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03200000000000003,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17485714285714293,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.777777777777781,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}