Iga Swiatek vs Belinda Bencic
United Cup | Hard |
11 Ene 2026, 10:30
11 Ene 2026, 10:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Iga …: 51,3%
Belinda …: 48,7%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,90 vs 12,48
(+0,45)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Iga … | Belinda … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,30 | 3,50 | 76,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,36 | 3,20 | 73,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,95 | 2,06 | 51,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Iga …: -21,6%
Belinda …: +21,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Iga Swiatek
Ranking
#2
UTR Rating
12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
41/52 = 78,8%
Belinda Bencic
Ranking
#10
UTR Rating
12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking
#23
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
30/41 = 73,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 9,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 5,5000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,7047 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 5081,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 3,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 5,6754 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 5,6746 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,2683 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 78,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 73,1707 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 76,7857 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 71,1111 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 52,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,5769 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,3545 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,1442 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,2577 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -4,0519 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 6,9481 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,8025 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -42,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -12,4000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0586 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7130 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5455 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,6220 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,5811 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 9,6752 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2795 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2407 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 5,6754 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,4500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5259 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,5447 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22320
API ID
15342513
Gamdom ID
588235
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22320,
"api_id": 15342513,
"gamdom_id": 588235,
"player1": "Iga Swiatek",
"player2": "Belinda Bencic",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-11T06:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.36,
"p2": 3.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.34,
"p2": 3.21
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5135,
"prob_p2": 0.4865,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5135,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 2,
"utr_singles": 12.9,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
"wr_surface_wins": 41,
"wr_surface_total": 52,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 10,
"utr_singles": 12.48,
"utr_ranking": 23,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 73.17073170731707,
"wr_surface_wins": 30,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.9,
"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.48,
"ranking": 23,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5788235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.5258823529411766,
"utr_diff": 0.4499999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 5.5,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 5081,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -4.0519230769230745,
"h2h_wins_diff": 2,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -41.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 78.84615384615384,
"surface_wr_p2": 73.17073170731707,
"utr_advantage": 3.544702638834181,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 3,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.7047480922384253,
"rank_advantage": 9,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 5.675422138836765,
"bp_converted_diff": 6.948076923076918,
"p1_surface_matches": 52,
"p2_surface_matches": 41,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.3544887429643495,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0585585585585586,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7130434782608696,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.802532833020638,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -6,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.1442307692307736,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.5769230769230769,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.621982398678009,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.581088827147836,
"surface_rank_synergy": 9.675165063829699,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 76.78571428571429,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.11111111111111,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.2576923076922952,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.2682926829268293,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -12.400000000000006,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 5.675422138836765,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.27946153846153843,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.24070731707317072,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.6746031746031775,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}