Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Final
11 Ene 2026, 11:30
11 Ene 2026, 11:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexander Bublik
Lorenzo …: 42,0%
Alexander …: 58,0%
¿Por qué Alexander Bublik?
UTR 15,77 vs 15,95
(-0,12)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Alexander … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,00 | 1,80 | 50,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,02 | 1,81 | 49,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,38 | 1,72 | 42,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: -5,4%
Alexander …: +5,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
22/37 = 59,5%
Alexander Bublik
Ranking
#10
UTR Rating
15,95 Pro
UTR Ranking
#4
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
20/36 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 4,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,5714 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4520 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1145,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 5,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 3,9039 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 3,5366 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0278 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 59,4595 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,5366 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 36,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1892 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -15,1104 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,3733 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 6,4153 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -9,0458 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,8408 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -7,1742 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0545 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9655 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4375 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,3441 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,4862 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 1,7645 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0906 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0596 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 3,9039 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9247 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9388 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,7538 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22323
API ID
15298415
Gamdom ID
563185
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22323,
"api_id": 15298415,
"gamdom_id": 563185,
"player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
"player2": "Alexander Bublik",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Final",
"date": "2026-01-11T07:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.8
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.02,
"p2": 1.81
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.99,
"p2": 1.81
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4196,
"prob_p2": 0.5804,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5804,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 15.77,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 10,
"utr_singles": 15.95,
"utr_ranking": 4,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 36,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.77,
"ranking": 9,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.95,
"ranking": 4,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.9247058823529412,
"utr_p2": 0.9388235294117647,
"utr_diff": -0.120000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 1.5714285714285714,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 1145,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -9.045795795795804,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
"utr_advantage": -0.7537688442211118,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 5,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.4519851237430572,
"rank_advantage": 4,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 3.9039039039039025,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.8408408408408405,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 36,
"serve_quality_diff": -15.110390390390393,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9655172413793104,
"aces_per_match_diff": -7.1741741741741745,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.37327327327327,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.344060540129398,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.486243509475548,
"surface_rank_synergy": 1.7645064890870095,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.00000000000001,
"second_serve_won_diff": 6.415315315315318,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0277777777777777,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 3.9039039039039025,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09059459459459462,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.059555555555555584,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.5365853658536466,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}