Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Final
11 Ene 2026, 11:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexander Bublik
Lorenzo …: 42,0% Alexander …: 58,0%
¿Por qué Alexander Bublik?
UTR 15,77 vs 15,95 (-0,12) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Alexander … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,00 1,80 50,0%
Gamdom 2,02 1,81 49,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,38 1,72 42,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: -5,4% Alexander …: +5,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 22/37 = 59,5%
Alexander Bublik
Ranking #10
UTR Rating 15,95 Pro
UTR Ranking #4
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 20/36 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 4,0000
rank_ratio 1,5714
log_rank_ratio 0,4520
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1145,0000
best_rank_diff 5,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,9039
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 3,5366
surface_matches_ratio 1,0278
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 59,4595
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,5366
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,0000
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 36,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1892
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -15,1104
first_serve_won_diff -5,3733
second_serve_won_diff 6,4153
bp_saved_diff -9,0458
bp_converted_diff -0,8408
aces_per_match_diff -7,1742
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0545
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9655
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4375
serve_consistency_p1 8,3441
serve_consistency_p2 8,4862
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,7645
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0906
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0596
elite_surface_amplifier 3,9039
UTR
utr_diff -0,1200
utr_p1 0,9247
utr_p2 0,9388
utr_advantage -0,7538
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22323
API ID 15298415
Gamdom ID 563185
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22323,
    "api_id": 15298415,
    "gamdom_id": 563185,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
    "player2": "Alexander Bublik",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2026-01-11T07:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.02,
      "p2": 1.81
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.99,
      "p2": 1.81
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4196,
    "prob_p2": 0.5804,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5804,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 15.77,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 10,
      "utr_singles": 15.95,
      "utr_ranking": 4,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.77,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.95,
      "ranking": 4,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9247058823529412,
    "utr_p2": 0.9388235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.120000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 1.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 1145,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -9.045795795795804,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": -0.7537688442211118,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 5,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.4519851237430572,
    "rank_advantage": 4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.9039039039039025,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.8408408408408405,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 36,
    "serve_quality_diff": -15.110390390390393,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9655172413793104,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -7.1741741741741745,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.37327327327327,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.344060540129398,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.486243509475548,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.7645064890870095,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.00000000000001,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 6.415315315315318,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0277777777777777,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 3.9039039039039025,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.09059459459459462,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.059555555555555584,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.5365853658536466,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}