Stefan Palosi vs Thiago Agustin Pernas
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Qualification Round 1
11 Ene 2026, 17:00
11 Ene 2026, 17:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefan Palosi
Stefan …: 76,9%
Thiago …: 23,1%
¿Por qué Stefan Palosi?
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Stefan … | Thiago … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,20 | 4,33 | 83,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,30 | 4,33 | 76,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Stefan …: -1,4%
Thiago …: +1,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stefan Palosi
Ranking
#484
UTR Rating
13,73 Pro
UTR Ranking
#535
Forma L5
50% (2p)
Forma L10
50% (2p)
WR Clay
4/7 = 57,1%
Thiago Agustin Pernas
Ranking
#-
Forma L5
50% (0p)
Forma L10
50% (0p)
WR Clay
0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 1,8459 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 7,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 55,3247 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3467 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 56,0214 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 62,3000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 61,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 68,2000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 25,4000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,2857 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -7,1429 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 7,1429 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,7879 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0000 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0714 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,6706 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,6706 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22339
API ID
15344344
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22339,
"api_id": 15344344,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Stefan Palosi",
"player2": "Thiago Agustin Pernas",
"tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-11T13:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.2,
"p2": 4.333333333333334
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.2,
"p2": 4.13
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7688,
"prob_p2": 0.2312,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7688,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 484,
"utr_singles": 13.73,
"utr_ranking": 535,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 50.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 2,
"form_l10_matches": 2
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 50,
"form_l10_wr": 50,
"form_l5_matches": 0,
"form_l10_matches": 0
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.73,
"ranking": 535,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.6705882352941176,
"utr_p2": 0.6705882352941176,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 42.85714285714286,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 68.2,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -7.142857142857139,
"p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 57.14285714285714,
"bp_converted_diff": 25.4,
"p1_surface_matches": 7,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 56.02142857142857,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.2857142857142856,
"combined_confidence": 0.3466666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 62.3,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.787878787878789,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.32467532467532,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 61.0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 7.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 7.142857142857139,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 48,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0714285714285714,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.845887445887444,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}