Stefan Palosi vs Thiago Agustin Pernas
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Qualification Round 1
11 Ene 2026, 17:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefan Palosi
Stefan …: 76,9% Thiago …: 23,1%
¿Por qué Stefan Palosi?
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Stefan … Thiago … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,33 83,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,30 4,33 76,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Stefan …: -1,4% Thiago …: +1,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stefan Palosi
Ranking #484
UTR Rating 13,73 Pro
UTR Ranking #535
Forma L5 50% (2p)
Forma L10 50% (2p)
WR Clay 4/7 = 57,1%
Thiago Agustin Pernas
Ranking #-
Forma L5 50% (0p)
Forma L10 50% (0p)
WR Clay 0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 57,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,8459
surface_matches_ratio 7,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 57,1429
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,3247
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 7,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3933
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3467
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 56,0214
first_serve_won_diff 62,3000
second_serve_won_diff 61,0000
bp_saved_diff 68,2000
bp_converted_diff 25,4000
aces_per_match_diff 3,2857
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 42,8571
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff -7,1429
weighted_momentum_diff 7,1429
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 48,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 30,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 13,7879
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0714
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,6706
utr_p2 0,6706
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22339
API ID 15344344
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22339,
    "api_id": 15344344,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Stefan Palosi",
    "player2": "Thiago Agustin Pernas",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-11T13:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.333333333333334
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.13
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7688,
    "prob_p2": 0.2312,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7688,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 484,
      "utr_singles": 13.73,
      "utr_ranking": 535,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 2,
      "form_l10_matches": 2
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50,
      "form_l10_wr": 50,
      "form_l5_matches": 0,
      "form_l10_matches": 0
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 13.73,
      "ranking": 535,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6705882352941176,
    "utr_p2": 0.6705882352941176,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 42.85714285714286,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 68.2,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -7.142857142857139,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 57.14285714285714,
    "bp_converted_diff": 25.4,
    "p1_surface_matches": 7,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 56.02142857142857,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.2857142857142856,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3466666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 62.3,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.787878787878789,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 61.0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 7.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 7.142857142857139,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 48,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0714285714285714,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.845887445887444,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}