Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Carlos Aguilar
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Qualification Round 1
11 Ene 2026, 19:45
11 Ene 2026, 19:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Carlos Aguilar
Thiago …: 19,9%
Juan …: 80,1%
¿Por qué Juan Carlos Aguilar?
UTR 12,77 vs 13,34
(-0,57)
— Niveles similares
Thiago …
W23-L28
45% WR
vs UTR 13,2
W2
Juan …
W29-L22
57% WR
vs UTR 13,1
W4
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Thiago … | Juan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,50 | 1,50 | 40,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,03 | 1,25 | 19,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Thiago …: -17,6%
Juan …: +17,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Thiago Cigarran
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1319
Forma L5
0% (1p)
Forma L10
0% (1p)
WR Clay
2/10 = 20,0%
Juan Carlos Aguilar
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,34 Pro
UTR Ranking
#815
Forma L5
0% (1p)
Forma L10
0% (1p)
WR Clay
4/9 = 44,4%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Thiago Cigarran
Record 2025
23W - 28L (45%)
Racha
2W
UTR Oponentes
13,2
Últimos 5:
W
W
L
L
L
Juan Carlos Aguilar
Record 2025
29W - 22L (57%)
Racha
4W
UTR Oponentes
13,1
Últimos 5:
W
W
W
W
L
Análisis Momentum
Juan Carlos Aguilar en racha: 4 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -24,4444 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,7875 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,1111 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 20,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 44,4444 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 28,5714 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 44,4796 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 10,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 9,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,6000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4200 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4267 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,8111 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,4000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 6,8000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 11,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,8556 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -4,9500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 111,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 168,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0000 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,3000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0556 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5612 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,6282 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,3661 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22343
API ID
15344345
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22343,
"api_id": 15344345,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Thiago Cigarran",
"player2": "Juan Carlos Aguilar",
"tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-11T15:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.5,
"p2": 1.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.41,
"p2": 1.51
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.199,
"prob_p2": 0.801,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.801,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.77,
"utr_ranking": 1319,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 23,
"utr_v4_losses": 28,
"utr_v4_wr": 45.09803921568628,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.16,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.54,
"opponent_name": "Breno Braga"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.68,
"opponent_name": "Valerio Aboian"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.56,
"opponent_name": "Pierre Delage"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.05,
"opponent_name": "Nicolas Barrientos"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.3,
"opponent_name": "Federico Zeballos"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:47.741827+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 20.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 2,
"wr_surface_total": 10,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 0.0,
"form_l5_matches": 1,
"form_l10_matches": 1
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.34,
"utr_ranking": 815,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 29,
"utr_v4_losses": 22,
"utr_v4_wr": 56.86274509803921,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 4,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.06,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 10.0,
"opponent_name": "Kazuki Nakajima"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 10.0,
"opponent_name": "Abhinav Rakesh"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 9.0,
"opponent_name": "Tyler Davis"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 6.0,
"opponent_name": "maestri grespky lorenzo"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.05,
"opponent_name": "Christoph Negritu"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:58.585275+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 44.44444444444444,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 9,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 0.0,
"form_l5_matches": 1,
"form_l10_matches": 1
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.77,
"ranking": 1319,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 13.34,
"ranking": 815,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5611764705882353,
"utr_p2": 0.628235294117647,
"utr_diff": -0.5700000000000003,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 0.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.799999999999997,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
"p2_confidence": 0.42,
"surface_wr_p1": 20.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 44.44444444444444,
"utr_advantage": -4.36614324013788,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -24.444444444444443,
"bp_converted_diff": 11.0,
"p1_surface_matches": 10,
"p2_surface_matches": 9,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.81111111111111,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.8555555555555554,
"combined_confidence": 0.42666666666666664,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.3999999999999986,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.6,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.0,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 28.57142857142857,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.47963800904977,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.1111111111111112,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -4.949999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 111,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 168,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.05555555555555558,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.787502693385046,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}