Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Carlos Aguilar
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Qualification Round 1
11 Ene 2026, 19:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Carlos Aguilar
Thiago …: 19,9% Juan …: 80,1%
¿Por qué Juan Carlos Aguilar?
UTR 12,77 vs 13,34 (-0,57) — Niveles similares
Thiago …
W23-L28
45% WR
vs UTR 13,2
W2
Juan …
W29-L22
57% WR
vs UTR 13,1
W4
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Thiago … Juan … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,50 1,50 40,0%
IA Fair Odds 5,03 1,25 19,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Thiago …: -17,6% Juan …: +17,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Thiago Cigarran
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #1319
Forma L5 0% (1p)
Forma L10 0% (1p)
WR Clay 2/10 = 20,0%
Juan Carlos Aguilar
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,34 Pro
UTR Ranking #815
Forma L5 0% (1p)
Forma L10 0% (1p)
WR Clay 4/9 = 44,4%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Thiago Cigarran
Record 2025 23W - 28L (45%)
Racha 2W
UTR Oponentes 13,2
Últimos 5:
W W L L L
Juan Carlos Aguilar
Record 2025 29W - 22L (57%)
Racha 4W
UTR Oponentes 13,1
Últimos 5:
W W W W L
Análisis Momentum
Juan Carlos Aguilar en racha: 4 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -24,4444
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,7875
surface_matches_ratio 1,1111
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 20,0000
surface_wr_p2 44,4444
surface_wr_p1_stable 28,5714
surface_wr_p2_stable 44,4796
p1_surface_matches 10,0000
p2_surface_matches 9,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,6000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4333
p2_confidence 0,4200
combined_confidence 0,4267
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,8111
first_serve_won_diff 1,4000
second_serve_won_diff -6,0000
bp_saved_diff 6,8000
bp_converted_diff 11,0000
aces_per_match_diff -1,8556
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -4,9500
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 111,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 168,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 10,0000
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,3000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0556
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5700
utr_p1 0,5612
utr_p2 0,6282
utr_advantage -4,3661
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22343
API ID 15344345
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22343,
    "api_id": 15344345,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Thiago Cigarran",
    "player2": "Juan Carlos Aguilar",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-11T15:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.5,
      "p2": 1.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.41,
      "p2": 1.51
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.199,
    "prob_p2": 0.801,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.801,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.77,
      "utr_ranking": 1319,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 23,
      "utr_v4_losses": 28,
      "utr_v4_wr": 45.09803921568628,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.16,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.54,
          "opponent_name": "Breno Braga"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.68,
          "opponent_name": "Valerio Aboian"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.56,
          "opponent_name": "Pierre Delage"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.05,
          "opponent_name": "Nicolas Barrientos"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.3,
          "opponent_name": "Federico Zeballos"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:47.741827+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 20.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.34,
      "utr_ranking": 815,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 29,
      "utr_v4_losses": 22,
      "utr_v4_wr": 56.86274509803921,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 4,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.06,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Kazuki Nakajima"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Abhinav Rakesh"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Tyler Davis"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 6.0,
          "opponent_name": "maestri grespky lorenzo"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.05,
          "opponent_name": "Christoph Negritu"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:58.585275+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 44.44444444444444,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.77,
      "ranking": 1319,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.34,
      "ranking": 815,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.628235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.5700000000000003,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.799999999999997,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "p2_confidence": 0.42,
    "surface_wr_p1": 20.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 44.44444444444444,
    "utr_advantage": -4.36614324013788,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -24.444444444444443,
    "bp_converted_diff": 11.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 10,
    "p2_surface_matches": 9,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.81111111111111,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.8555555555555554,
    "combined_confidence": 0.42666666666666664,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.3999999999999986,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.6,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.0,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 28.57142857142857,
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    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.0,
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    "weighted_momentum_diff": -4.949999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 111,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 168,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.05555555555555558,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.787502693385046,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
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  "feature_importance": {}
}