Juan Estevez vs Valentin Guadagno
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Qualification Round 1
11 Ene 2026, 20:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Estevez
Juan …: 77,6% Valentin …: 22,4%
¿Por qué Juan Estevez?
UTR 13,91 vs 12,16 (+1,64) — Ligera ventaja
Juan …
Sin datos
Valentin …
W28-L32
47% WR
vs UTR 12,0
L5
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (37%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Juan … Valentin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,04 9,00 96,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,29 4,46 77,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Juan …: -12,1% Valentin …: +12,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Estevez
Ranking #455
UTR Rating 13,91 Pro
UTR Ranking #429
Forma L5 0% (1p)
Forma L10 0% (1p)
WR Clay 3/10 = 30,0%
Valentin Guadagno
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,16 Pro
UTR Ranking #1819
Forma L5 0% (1p)
Forma L10 0% (1p)
WR Clay 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Juan Estevez
Sin datos UTR v4
Valentin Guadagno
Record 2025 28W - 32L (47%)
Racha 5L
UTR Oponentes 12,0
Últimos 5:
L L L L L
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 31,0000
rank_ratio 1,0661
log_rank_ratio 0,0640
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 93,0000
best_rank_diff 31,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 30,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,2381
surface_matches_ratio 10,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 30,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 35,7143
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 10,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,4000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4333
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 42,7800
first_serve_won_diff 56,8000
second_serve_won_diff 42,6000
bp_saved_diff 59,8000
bp_converted_diff 35,4000
aces_per_match_diff 0,8000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 111,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 37,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 10,0000
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,9202
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2310
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,4690
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 1,6400
utr_p1 0,6824
utr_p2 0,4894
utr_advantage 12,6348
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22345
API ID 15344342
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22345,
    "api_id": 15344342,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Juan Estevez",
    "player2": "Valentin Guadagno",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-11T16:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.04,
      "p2": 9.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.03,
      "p2": 9.96
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7756,
    "prob_p2": 0.2244,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7756,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 455,
      "utr_singles": 13.91,
      "utr_ranking": 429,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 30.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.16,
      "utr_ranking": 1819,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 28,
      "utr_v4_losses": 32,
      "utr_v4_wr": 46.666666666666664,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 5,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.01,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.18,
          "opponent_name": "Alejo Lorenzo Lingua Lavallen"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.21,
          "opponent_name": "Tomas Tischner"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Nicolas Bianchi"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.3,
          "opponent_name": "Santiago De la Fuente"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Nicolas Bianchi"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:54.424557+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.91,
      "ranking": 429,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.16,
      "ranking": 1819,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6823529411764707,
    "utr_p2": 0.4894117647058824,
    "utr_diff": 1.6400000000000006,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0660980810234542,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": 93,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 59.8,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 30.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 12.634822804314332,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 31,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.06400532997591238,
    "rank_advantage": 31,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 30.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 35.4,
    "p1_surface_matches": 10,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 42.78,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.8,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 56.8,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.4,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.0,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.9201598992773714,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 35.714285714285715,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 42.6,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 10.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 111,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 37,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.23100000000000004,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.469,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.238095238095238,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}